中美关系不应被简单套入“权力转移”逻辑。中国的首要目标是推进自身现代化，无意挑战或取代美国，而美方却将中国每一步能力提升都视为自身优势丧失和“国家安全威胁”，导致打压与反制循环。当前中美深度嵌入同一全球经济与技术生态，要构建“建设性战略稳定”，需就竞争目的、竞争工具和竞争范围划定三条边界。美方应超越简单化叙事，与中方共同务实管控分歧。

2027年是中国人民解放军建军100周年。按照我国国防和军队建设既定日程，这一年是实现建军一百年奋斗目标的关键节点，标志着我国国防和军队现代化建设完成阶段性的战略任务，向着建设世界一流军队的目标迈出关键一步。

近年来，人工智能（AI）技术快速突破，正在深刻改变网络空间的安全态势。人工智能不仅能够辅助人类编写代码、分析漏洞，而且开始具备自主发现漏洞、规划攻击路径和执行复杂网络任务的能力。伴随AI能力的跃升，一些过去停留在理论层面的失控风险正逐渐转化为现实安全挑战。

For much of the past decade, the strategic community in the United States has viewed China through the lens of a "power transition", perceiving the bilateral relationship as a contest between what they believe is a "rising power" and an established one. This perspective has fueled debates on the "Thucydides Trap", long-term strategic competition and even a potential "new Cold War".

5月北京会晤余温未散，时隔不到半年，中美两国元首又将在华盛顿会晤。如此高频的元首互动，在清华大学战略与安全研究中心副研究员孙成昊看来，信号很明确：元首外交已成为当前稳定中美关系最重要的战略锚点。

The “long peace” is a term coined by Yale professor and Cold War historian John Lewis Gaddis in his 1987 book The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War. It refers to the fact that, from the end of World War II in 1945 into the 1980s, more than 40 years passed without a third world war between the United States and Soviet Union. For centuries before 1945, great powers fought destructive general wars such as the Napoleonic Wars, World War I and World War II roughly once every generation.

The Mecca security pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan stipulates that an armed attack against one shall count as an attack against all three. Yet the real message is directed at the United States: if being an American ally offers no immunity against attack, there is little point in waiting for Washington to honour its security guarantees.

When Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. PresidentDonald Trump met in Beijing, in May, they agreed that their two countries should build a constructive relationship of strategic stability. Although many observers in Washington responded skeptically to this new framework, dismissing it as empty words, it marks the rst time in more than a decade that China and the United States established a consensus about how to de ne the relationship that leaders on both sides broadly recognize. Strategic stability does not refer to nuclear détente; rather, it suggests a new equilibrium in which both sides can avoid further deterioration of the relationship and even expand cooperation where interests align.

美国总统特朗普8月31日在社媒平台发文，为全美人工智能（AI）数据中心建设辩护，称反对相关项目的美国社区是“想要落后和贫穷”，并呼吁各地“让数据说了算”。这是他迄今为止对全美AI基础设施建设最为直接的公开支持。

During U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing in May, he and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to initiate an intergovernmental dialogue on artificial intelligence. The decision was significant. The last official AI dialogue between the two countries took place in May 2024, during the Biden administration. Given the extraordinary pace of AI development and the growing number of incidents involving frontier AI systems, it is remarkable that the world’s two leading AI powers have gone more than two years without an official conversation on one of the most consequential technologies of our time.

大国竞争加剧、地缘冲突频发与新一轮科技革命相互叠加，为美国军工科技产业的扩张与重塑提供了“机会窗口”。大批硅谷企业正在改变长期以来回避政府订单、与军方保持距离的立场，成长为新的防务巨头。在“民参军”场景不断拓展的背景下，美国政府和军方吸纳这些商业力量，共同重塑美国的国防创新生态。这是影响中美关系乃至全球安全秩序的重要变量。

俄乌冲突正在进入更漫长也更残酷的消耗阶段。前线胜负之外，经济、能源、军援与社会承受力正成为新的战场。战争打到今天，真正决定结局的，或许不是谁先突破防线，而是谁能撑得更久。