On June 21, 2025, CISS Youth held the 17th session of its “CISS Youth Talk” series, themed “The Return of MAGA: Fractures Between ‘America First’ and ‘European Autonomy’.” The keynote speaker was Yu Daha o, PhD in International Relations from Fudan University and Visiting Scholar at Freie Universität Berlin. Dr. Yan Shaohua, Associate Professor and Deputy Director of the Center for China-Europe Relations at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University, served as the discussant. Over 40 students and faculty members from Tsinghua University, Peking University, Renmin University of China, and other institutions joined the session online. The event was moderated by Wang Yinuo, a member of the Fifth Secretariat of CISS Youth.

Yu Dahao structured his talk around five key dimensions: Trump’s potential return to the White House, the post-Cold War crisis in transatlantic relations, the strategic reorientation of MAGA toward Europe, the drivers and constraints of European autonomy, and the prospects for rebalancing the transatlantic alliance. His analysis focused especially on the manifestations of “America First,” the evolving transatlantic landscape, and the future of China-Europe relations.

Yu first outlined Trump’s potential second-term agenda in two main aspects: domestic polarization and external pressure, analyzing the logic behind Trump’s policy approach. He then reviewed the ongoing crisis in transatlantic relations since the end of the Cold War, highlighting the fragile construction and fragmentation of transatlantic consensus, and assessed the current situation from the perspectives of security, politics, economics, and values.

Yu argued that the “America First” strategy has fundamentally altered the foundation of U.S.-Europe cooperation, challenging the potential for joint initiatives. Under this pressure, European strategic autonomy has gained traction in recent years as a response to risk and a means of collective self-preservation, encompassing political, economic, and digital domains. However, Yu emphasized that Europe's quest for autonomy faces significant hurdles, including internal divisions among member states, insufficient cohesion, external pressure, and structural dependence on the U.S. He also offered predictions on how European autonomy might evolve and how the transatlantic alliance may be reshaped in the future. Concluding his talk, Yu shared insights into the complex reality of transatlantic relations, identifying the core concerns of European strategic autonomy.

In the discussion, Dr. Yan Shaohua praised Yu’s analysis as comprehensive, timely, and well-structured, covering key debates in current international relations. He further elaborated on the concept of European strategic autonomy. “Strategic autonomy is fundamentally about how to manage dependence — how Europe can better safeguard its interests under external dependencies,” he said. He also offered a three-fold analytical framework, noting that autonomy reflects a shift in Europe’s views on power politics, external reliance, and identity. Yan emphasized the internal and external constraints on European autonomy, particularly the divergence in member state interests and strategic cultures, and noted that U.S. perceptions of European autonomy remain an important factor. Finally, he suggested that a renewed Atlantic alliance remains a possibility in the current global landscape.

The insights shared by the speakers sparked thoughtful discussion among participants. The Q&A session explored topics such as China-Germany relations, the implications of transatlantic changes for the Taiwan Strait, and the entrenched challenges facing European strategic autonomy. Rich in content and perspective, the event provided a nuanced analysis of the macro- and micro-level, as well as short- and long-term, impacts of the “America First” policy.