On December 2, 2023, the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) of Tsinghua University held the 2023 Year-End Situation Theory-Discussing Meeting. More than 30 scholars and experts, including CISS Academic Committee members, experts, and fellows, were invited to attend the Meeting. Under the theme of “Stabilization · Expansion · Shaping,” the Meeting focused on “Reconstruction of Global Order and Trends of Great Power Games,” “Changing Landscapes in the Neighboring Environment and Security Architecture,” “Evolution of Global Governance and South-South Cooperation,” and “Policy Suggestions for the Work in 2024.”
During 2023, the great changes unprecedented in a century have deepened, and the international situation has been centered on two main lines: security and development. The Ukraine crisis has accelerated the deterioration of the global security situation; the relations among major countries have faced the severe test of ideological confrontation and factionalism; the development of economic globalization has been confronted with many difficulties; and there is a risk of disorder in the international system. Taking into account the current international hotspot issues, the participating experts sorted out the trends of factionalism in the international system, the complexity of the regional situation, the continuous evolution of the Global South, and the prominence of technological geopolitics in the context of the great power game, and then analyzed the challenges and opportunities faced by China, the biggest risks China will face in the future, and the main motivating factors.
Looking ahead to the international strategic and security situation in 2024, the participating experts believed that the outlook of the world economy is still less than optimistic. The prolongation of local conflicts worldwide will intensify the tense situation; the game of great powers may enter a new normal; and the adjustment of the international balance of power will be both risky and challenging. However, factors favorable to China are also increasing as a result of the changing situation. The participating experts made judgments and recommendations on the characteristics of the future international situation and China’s challenges and opportunities.