On September 22, 2021, the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) of Tsinghua University held its 20th Security and Strategy Seminar, which focused on AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Moderated by CISS Fellow ZHOU Bo, the event brought together experts and scholars from Tsinghua University, Peking University, China People’s Liberation Army National Defense University, Party School of the Central Committee of CPC, Academy of Military Sciences and other universities and research institutions to discuss the dynamics and impact of AUKUS on China and to explore corresponding policy recommendations. Experts from the Policy Planning Department and the Department of North American and Oceanian Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China were invited as well.

The discussants analyzed the impact of AUKUS on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, regional security situation and international political landscape through a technical assessment of the submarines in question as well as through an evaluation of relevant submarine exports and the proliferation of nuclear-powered submarine technology. They believe that AUKUS will trigger the concern of many countries about changes in regional strategic dynamics, especially about the possibility that it could well open a Pandora’s Box of regional arms race.

The panelists then assessed the impact of AUKUS on China in terms of the Asia-Pacific arms race, security threats to China, and changes in the regional strategic environment. The establishment of AUKUS may prompt a new round of arms race among regional countries, leading to a volatile geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific. It appears that, with regard to the recent strategic adjustment of the US, shifting its strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific has become an irreversible trend, and the US will continue to deepen its military and security cooperation with its Indo-Pacific allies and partners within the framework of “great power competition,” which will inevitably exacerbate the gravity and complexity of the regional situation.

It was suggested at the seminar that in the face of the establishment of AUKUS and changes in the surrounding geopolitical situation, China should be prepared and take active measures to maintain communication and collaboration with relevant regional countries to enhance mutual trust. In addition, countries in the region should refrain from and oppose forming exclusive “cliques” targeting third parties, reject acts that could undermine international non-proliferation efforts, and work together to maintain regional peace and stability.