The Global South, composed of many developing countries, has in recent years become a focus of international public opinion. It is seen as a significant force in the reform of the international order.
Kishore Mahbubani, a distinguished fellow at National University of Singapore, wrote that 88 percent of the world population lives in the Global South and are “no longer passive participants on the world stage.” Upcoming decades may belong to the Global South. According to the projections of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, India will overtake the United States in GDP by 2050. The combined GDP of China, India and Indonesia will reach $116.7 trillion by 2060, accounting for 49 percent of the world economy, which is triple the U.S. economy.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in particular, countries of the Global South have expressed objections to double standards, and called for the rejection of a new cold war. They have been trying, through enhanced cooperation, to further ensure that development continues to be the prime objective on the global governance agenda. They have urged the international community to attach more importance to tackling challenges such as food security, energy transformation, climate change and public health, as well as to cushion the blows of geopolitical contention and various security risks to their interests. In addition, a series of developments, including the expansion of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, have created new opportunities for the Global South to amplify its voice and influence in international governance.
Meanwhile, the United States and other Western countries put enormous emphasis on the Global South, declaring that they will build a new partnership. It should be noted that this maneuver is related to Washington’s heightened strategic competition with Beijing and also reflects the concerns of Western countries that their dominance is being challenged in the international order. Michael Schuman, a senior fellow of the Atlantic Council, said that China is attempting to use the Global South to realize its new vision of the global order and to confront the United States and its allies. “The Global South,” he said, “will be one of the great battlefields of the growing U.S.-China competition.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. has made the crippling of China’s ties with other developing countries a key step in containing the country and increasingly distinguishes between China and the Global South. John Ikenberry of Princeton University theorizes that the current world consists of three parts — the Global West led by the U.S. and Europe, the Global East led by Russia and China and the Global South, an amorphous collection of non-Western developing nations. He stresses that the Global West and the Global East will compete for the Global South and that the “nightmare coalition” for China would be for the West and the Global South to swing into alignment.
The U.S. is trying to adopt the “divide and conquer” policy within the Global South by supporting India and a few other countries as it contends with China for leadership to counterbalance China’s influence on the developing world. Schuman said that China is confronted with “rivals from within” the Global South. Beijing and other have disputes over such issues as debt and the development of natural resources. Some in developing countries even criticize China’s “new imperialism.” Washington can use this tension within the Global South to expand its sphere of influence, he added.
In January 2023, India invited more than 120 developing countries to attend the Voice of the Global South Summit, but China was excluded. According to Manjari Chatterjee Miller, India — which is committed to developing itself into a leader of the Global South — has long competed with China for this role, and the U.S. should offer immense support. India, given its identity as a southwestern power, finds confluence with the West in values and strategic goals, while at the same time maintaining deep roots in the Global South. It seeks to play a role as a bridge between the developed world and the Global South through a new diplomatic balance and to further entrench its position as a major global power.
Happymon Jacob, founder of the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, a New Delhi-based think tank, said, “China seeks to turn the global South against the U.S.-led order and enlist these countries in a Chinese-led counterpart, making the Global South a base for China’s rise. India, by contrast, expresses concerns about the current dominant U.S.-led order but wants to see that order reformed, not overthrown. On its own, India does not have the resources to match China’s economic overtures to the Global South.”
Jacob added that the U.S. and other Western countries must cooperate with India to weaken China’s attraction to developing countries.
In addition, Washington is trying to adjust the distribution of power across Global South countries in international mechanisms to dilute Beijing’s institutional power and intensify the scramble among those nations to play a leading role in global governance. Emerging nations such as India and Brazil have yet to be able to challenge America’s strong position of national power and consequently end up being targets the U.S. wants to rope in. Suzanne Nossel, a former deputy secretary of state for international organizations, said the U.S. should win the support of India and other Global South countries by advancing UN Security Council reforms, which could draw these nations closer to the inner circle of international governance and force China and Russia to make concessions.
Further, by hyping the economic risks and debt issues associated with the Belt and Road Initiative and making the most of frictions between developing countries and China, the U.S. is attempting to inflame the Global South’s anti-China sentiments. Meanwhile, it wants to sell the substitute plans drawn up with its Western allies. Hunter Stoll, a defense analyst at RAND, said that while the Belt and Road Initiative is popular in Central Asia, Kazakhstan and some other countries have concerns about China; hence the United States should step up investments in the region by bolstering the participation of the private sector through the Economic Resilience Initiative in Central Asia and enhancing the impact of NGOs such as the American Councils for International Education.
In conclusion, the Global South has become an important element of U.S. strategic competition with China. Through closer connections with the Global South, Washington is trying to alienate these nations from China and outcompete Beijing. Nonetheless, the U.S. is confronted with many restrictions and challenges in implementing this strategy, including its political polarization, lack of policy consistency and limited available resources.
More important, Global South nations don’t want to become pawns in a geopolitical power game. As James Traub, a fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, said, Global South countries do not want to have to choose sides in a new cold war. Instead, they want to push forward a “new non-aligned movement” in a spirit of pragmatism.
This article was first published in China-US Focus on 5 August 2024