Sun ChenghaoFellow, Center for International Security and Stategy - Tsinghua University, Founder - ChinAffairs+
Chen SiyaoResearch Assistant - London School of Economics and Political Science
The sudden influx of American users onto RedNote (Xiaohongshu), now dubbed the “TikTok refugees,” represents far more than a mere platform migration. Triggered by the impending TikTok ban in the United States, this phenomenon encapsulates a broader narrative: the intersection of technological governance, cultural exchange, and digital sovereignty in an increasingly fragmented online landscape.
How do Chinese observers interpret the motivations behind America’s TikTok ban saga? What strategic scenarios are emerging in China regarding TikTok’s future trajectory? How do these narratives shape and reflect China’s views of the complex China-U.S. relations? Examining these questions offers critical insights into the shifting dynamics of global technological competition and the evolving contours of bilateral relations in a contested digital age.
Behind the digital exodus
At its core, Americans’ exodus to RedNote reflects the entanglement of geopolitics and digitalization. U.S. national security concerns have transformed TikTok—a widely popular app—into a flashpoint of technological competition, prompting users to seek refuge on another platform offering a comparable interface, functionality, and algorithmic recommendations. Simultaneously, this migration to RedNote highlights the growing fluidity of global digital spaces, where users cross platform boundaries to maintain their online communities and habits while reaffirming their commitment to free expression within regulatory constraints.
This digital migration has sparked mixed reactions within China. On the one hand, RedNote’s burgeoning global appeal is celebrated as a symbol of China’s expanding digital and cultural influence, bolstering national pride. Optimism abounds regarding the potential for facilitating people-to-people exchanges, with RedNote providing a shared platform that can break echo chambers and foster cross-cultural understanding. However, these rosy prospects are tempered by practical concerns. The influx of non-Chinese-speaking users exposes language barriers, cultural shock, and integration challenges, while content moderation raises difficulties in harmonizing Chinese domestic regulatory compliance with global expectations.
While RedNote has not explicitly addressed such concerns, its last-updated user terms of service emphasize adherence to China’s Cybersecurity Law and Regulations on Network Data Security Management. This suggests an unspoken policy of algorithmic homogenization: non-Chinese content is filtered through the same standards as domestic posts, potentially influencing cross-cultural interactions. Consequently, the platform has introduced a “one-click translation” feature to enhance accessibility. Nevertheless, TikTok’s reinstatement has triggered attrition in RedNote’s overseas engagement. This episode, though short-lived, has rekindled a “Tower of Babel” moment, offering a glimpse into the notion that the future of stable China-U.S. exchanges ultimately rests with the people.
Different perspectives, different narratives
In China, the TikTok ban goes beyond regulatory disputes; it symbolizes a geopolitical contest over technological hegemony and digital sovereignty. This issue has prompted introspection across various sectors, shedding light on China’s techno-business repositioning and its strategic posture amid the intensifying great power competition.
The Chinese government has consistently described the TikTok ban as part of a broader U.S. strategy to curb China’s technological advances. Official statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce argue that the United States is using national security concerns as a pretext to suppress foreign competitors, undermining the principles of fair competition and a non-discriminatory business environment and further eroding international trade norms. Drawing parallels with previous U.S. actions against Huawei and WeChat, Chinese officials contend that TikTok’s securitization reflects the entrenched mindset where any China-related issue is linked to national security. This “gangster logic,” as described by Chinese officials, reflects Washington’s anxiety over its perceived decline in global hegemonic status and its determination to preserve technological dominance.
For Chinese enterprises aiming for global expansion, the TikTok saga serves as a cautionary tale, illustrating the trade-offs between international growth and political vulnerabilities. ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, is restructuring its strategy by focusing on cutting-edge technologies and diversifying into less contentious geographic regions that offer greater room for growth, such as Southeast Asia and Latin America.
Beyond immediate financial losses and operational challenges, America’s TikTok ban signals a rising wave of tech nationalism and economic protectionism, where technological assets are increasingly seen as instruments of state power rather than purely commercial ventures. For Chinese companies, this necessitates compliance strategies, risk mitigation, and localized approaches. The ban has also fueled calls within China to enhance domestic technological self-reliance and develop alternative ecosystems that reduce dependence on foreign markets.
Chinese academics analyze the TikTok saga through the lens of geopolitical rivalry and the shifting balance of digital power, viewing it as a pivotal moment in a new technological cold war centered on rule-making authority. As a “proxy battlefield” in the China-U.S. competition for technological leadership, Chinese analysts judge that TikTok’s case epitomizes the United States’ push for digital decoupling, manifesting a “whole-of-government” and “whole-of-society” approach in its strategic competition with China. Scholars stress the implications for global digital governance, noting that unilateral actions undermine international legal norms, accelerate the fragmentation of the global digital economy, and intensify data localization trends. Additionally, TikTok’s role as a user-driven social media app, empowering individuals to shape public opinion from the ground up, has further attracted regulatory scrutiny. As a digital platform deeply embedded in American society, the ban also showcases the United States’ protectionist stance on data resources within a digital mercantilist framework.
Among the general public, there is a shared undercurrent of grievance toward Washington. On RedNote, Gen Z-dominated discourse tends to view the platform’s preemptive decision to go offline before the ban, along with its earlier calls for users to pressure lawmakers, as a display of “hardline resolve” (“硬气”“硬刚”), a badge of national pride in defiance of the perceived U.S. “overreach” and “bullying.” Elder Chinese audiences, in contrast, interpret the case as an analogy to historical cycles of Western suppression of rising powers, bearing the hallmark of American hegemony.
The responses across various Chinese demographic groups reveal both areas of convergence and divergence. A notable consensus frames the ban as a deliberate and unjust effort by the United States to curtail China’s global influence, resonating with a sense of national solidarity. However, divergences arise in priorities: the government underscores sovereignty and systemic competition, businesses focus on pragmatic risk management, and academics analyze structural implications for bilateral relations and global digital governance. Public sentiment further shows generational divides, with varying contextualizations shaped by distinct historical and socio-cultural lenses. Collectively, these interlocking narratives amplify China’s strategic distrust toward the United States, accelerating a global tech bifurcation where estrangement eclipses cooperation.
TikTok’s grace period: A fragile truce
President Donald Trump’s recent executive order granting a 75-day extension to TikTok, set to end on April 5, coupled with the halt on more tariffs on Chinese goods, has sparked speculation about a possible “honeymoon period” in China-U.S. relations. While these gestures may seem conciliatory on the surface, they more accurately reflect complex strategic calculations rather than a genuine thaw in tensions.
In China, these developments are likely to be met with a mix of cautious skepticism and strategic wariness. While the extension represents a less-politicized and more pragmatic approach to dealing with TikTok, signaling tactical de-escalation, it is unlikely to be mistaken for a fundamental shift in Washington’s overall China policy or a lasting détente. Instead, these moves are seen as motivated primarily by short-term expediency, such as avoiding economic disruptions and managing electoral expectations. Consequently, any perceived “honeymoon” is inherently fragile and contingent upon structural factors that continue to define the China-U.S. rivalry. Persistent tensions over technological competition, diverging geopolitical strategies, and clashing ideological underpinnings determine that the underlying dynamics remain conflict-ridden.
As for TikTok, while the extension temporarily forestalls confrontation, it does little to resolve the debate over data sovereignty and national security. The looming ban-or-sale mandate hangs over TikTok like a Damoclean sword, symbolizing the precarious state of bilateral relations. This ongoing uncertainty not only jeopardizes the platform’s future but also brings attention to how economic and technological interdependence is increasingly overshadowed by political discord.
TikTok at a crossroads: Possible scenarios
Standing at the nexus of China-U.S. strategic relations, TikTok’s fate remains misty, shaped by the volatile interplay of domestic pressures and geopolitical dynamics.
Scenario 1: Forced sale to a U.S. entity
A qualified divestiture, requiring ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations to an American company, has been the most prominent proposal. Nonetheless, ByteDance has consistently expressed its reluctance to sell, and the Chinese government has emphasized its opposition to such a move, viewing it as an infringement on corporate sovereignty. China’s revised Catalogue for Prohibited and Restricted Export Technologies suggests the government would likely veto any divestment involving critical technologies. For China, a compelled sale is perceived as an unacceptable expropriation with far-reaching consequences, potentially setting a troubling precedent for future international business operations.
Scenario 2: Joint venture
Trump proposed a compromise in which the United States could hold a 50% stake in TikTok through a “joint venture,” either in partnership with ByteDance or a selected American buyer, with Perplexity AI demonstrating strong appetite. However, such an arrangement remains highly contentious in China. Though Trump’s proposal lacks a clear roadmap, it indicates, at least from China’s perspective, a U.S. willingness to shift away from the clichéd national security rhetoric, creating a brief respite for China to assess Washington’s underlying strategic intent before its next move.
Scenario 3: Total shutdown in the United States
If a sale does not take place, TikTok could face the possibility of a complete ban in the U.S. market. This would have substantial repercussions, including the loss of a massive user base and crucial revenue streams for ByteDance. Such a move might prompt retaliatory actions from China against U.S. companies operating within its borders, leading to a potential escalation in economic hostilities. Conversely, this scenario could also encourage ByteDance to adjust its global strategy, expanding its footprint in the Global South, where geopolitical tensions are less pronounced.
Scenario 4: Legislative reversal by the Trump administration
Another possibility is that the Trump administration reverses the ban through legislative action. Given the administration’s historical stance on Chinese technology companies and the bipartisan consensus on restricting TikTok, this scenario appears less likely due to the significant political costs involved. However, if pursued, it might signal to China a willingness to engage in selective cooperation, potentially offering a limited window for dialogue. On the other hand, it could also be perceived domestically as a capitulation by the Trump administration, undermining perceptions that the administration is taking a tough stance on China.
The TikTok saga, evolving from a globally popular entertainment platform to a contentious flashpoint in U.S. legal and political debates, is a paradigmatic case study of how business interests are intricately tied to geopolitical dynamics. It is far from a simple binary choice of “sell” or “not sell”; TikTok’s dilemma embodies a prolonged struggle over national security, technological competition, and corporate survival. Its resolution—whether it escalates tensions or fosters new avenues for dialogue—will hinge on both sides’ ability to balance immediate pressures with China’s long-term goal of guiding bilateral relations toward stable and constructive engagement despite intensifying strategic rivalry. Ultimately, the outcome of the TikTok saga will serve as a barometer for Chinese perceptions of U.S. intentions—either validating the belief that the United States seeks to weaponize regulatory tools for a fierce competition or leaving room for cautious engagement in an increasingly complex relationship.