On December 12, China Forum and China Review Think Tank held their fourth joint forum titled “Trump’s Return to the White House and China-US Relations in the Next Four Years.” The forum examined the bilateral ties in the Trump 2.0 era, and explored the future of the Taiwan Strait, China-US trade, and the Middle East.

The event featured Song Wei, research fellow, National Academy of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China; Sun Bingyan, deputy director, Research Center for Intellectual Property and Technological Security, University of International Relations; Ling Shengli, deputy director, Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University; Du Lan, deputy director, Department for Asia-Pacific Studies, China Institute of International Studies. 

Professor Song Wei said that at present, the system of checks and balances is still clearly in place between the establishment and Donald Trump. In the Taiwan Strait, there may be more conflicts in the Trump presidency, but it is unlikely that the president-elect himself would actually start a war with China over Taiwan. 

According to Sun Bingyan, the latest US presidential election reflects two things. First, the political polarization in the States is not as intense. Second, the fact that Trump won a landslide victory does not mean the victory of the conservatism represented by Trump and the Republican Party. 

According to Ling Shengli, with Trump’s return to the White House, China and the US could face much anxiety in their bilateral relations, including issues regarding trade, technology, Taiwan, and cooperation, as Trump’s policies will be tougher in his second term.

The next few years could witness an intensification of Trumpism, said Du Lan. Focused on his domestic agenda, Trump will push for deep state and civil service reforms, cut taxes, raise tariffs, return to Protestant values, and crack down on immigration. Globally, with the US in strategic contraction, Trump’s foreign policy will become more conservative, isolative, protectionist, pragmatic, and transactional.  

Wen Jing, director of international communication at China Forum, believes that during Trump’s new term, Israel and Saudi Arabia will become important allies and pivots in the Middle East for the US to maintain its strategic presence in the region. 

The China Forum-China Review Think Tank Forum is a cooperation project on international relations between China Forum under Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy and the China Review Think Tank Foundation.