On April 29, Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret.), senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy and a China Forum expert, gave an interview to the South China Morning Post, sharing his take on South China Sea, Ukraine, Gaza, China’s military development, modern warfare, AI, the use of nuclear weapons, and other geopolitical and military issues.
In response to the China-Philippines dispute over the South China Sea, Zhou stressed that while the Philippines has taken many provocative actions and even shot Chinese fishermen, China –which has never used force against the Philippines – has always exercised restraint. He believes that the best case scenario in the future is that the Philippines fulfills its commitment to tow away the illegal ‘beach-sitting’ warships at Renai Reef, while the worst case scenario is that it continues to intensify its confrontation, leading to an escalation in tensions in the area. However, Zhou made it clear that this issue should not be regarded as a dispute between China and ASEAN at large.
China has never been involved in any war since 1979, and its accelerated military buildup is mainly influenced by tensions with the US, potential conflicts in the South China Sea and the Taiwan question, said Zhou in response to criticism of the People’s Liberation Army, adding that China will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity, patience and effort.
On the crisis in Ukraine, Zhou believes that it is difficult for Ukraine to recover its lost territory, and the country is facing increasingly unfavorable odds as the West dithers over aid. In addition, in response to the massive human toll caused by Israel’s war on Gaza, Zhou said that the US support for Israel has resulted in serious damage to its global credibility, especially in the Global South.
Commenting on Russia’s economic and military resilience in the conflict, Zhou spoke of its performance as a reminder that the paradigm of warfare has changed significantly. AI could play a key role in future military conflicts, and China and the US need to ensure that the technology is not applied to key military areas, including nuclear weapons, said Zhou, highlighting the importance of bilateral military talks.
On nuclear force development, Zhou called on countries with nuclear weapons to strengthen dialogue toward a consensus on the “no first use” policy to defuse strategic tensions.