对于依赖石油进口的国家而言，美国对伊朗的战争及其对全球石油供应造成的扰动，使中国的新能源战略显得更具吸引力。特朗普政府正在进一步强化其全球石油主导地位，而中国则有机会巩固自身作为新能源强国的地位。与此同时，中国也需要妥善处理各国对过度依赖中国新能源技术和供应链的担忧。

特朗普2.0时期延续了拜登政府建设韧性国防供应链的努力，进一步加强对国防供应链的“战略控制”，强化联邦干预、简化制度流程、加强风险审查，推动构建以“印太”为前沿的全球防务产业布局。此轮政策演进由国家安全逻辑主导，受国内制造业空心化、联盟体系重组与对华战略竞争三重因素驱动。然而，特朗普2.0时期的国防供应链政策面临承包商路径依赖、制度标准分歧、战略互信缺失与产业能力不足等多重挑战，导致其政策推进受到制约。总体看，该政策虽在一定程度上提升了美国国防供应链的自主性，但也因成本攀升与系统脆弱性加剧等结构性难题，削弱了自身的可持续性，加剧盟友在产业链中的职能分化与对美依附，并推动 全球防务产业链向碎片化方向演进。

不久前，西班牙首相桑切斯访问清华大学发表演讲时提到：“科研人员在西中两国之间往来交流，令思想得以传播。我们共同构建着任何一个国家都无法独自完成的知识体系。这些合作揭示了一个非常重要的事实：合作不会削弱科学，只会让它更强。”如何让中国与欧洲国家的知识与思想流动，构筑理解与合作桥梁？本期“中欧和声”邀请中欧专家学者就此展开讨论。

The United States House Select Committee on China recently released a report on artificial intelligence. Titled “Buy What It Can, Steal What It Must: China’s Campaign to Acquire Frontier AI Capabilities”, it captures a hardening view in Washington that Beijing’s artificial intelligence rise is closely tied to both market access and security concerns.

3月底，美国得克萨斯州小城格雷普韦恩举行了对共和党保守派阵营非常重要的年度会议——保守派政治行动会议（CPAC）。这是一个融合了政治集会、社交活动和“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）主题大会的平台，旨在巩固保守派选民基础。然而，今年的保守派政治行动会议却暗流涌动，共和党籍总统特朗普十年来首次缺席，引发众多猜测。美媒称，在当今的美国政治生态中，很少有平台像保守派政治行动会议一样，既是团结保守主义阵营的“精神核心”之一，又是内部分歧最为直观的放大器。接受《环球时报》记者采访的专家认为，美国保守派阵营对当下政府推行的一些具体政策感到不满，共和党党内裂痕有扩大的可能性。尽管短期内不会使共和党及其选民一触即溃，但增大了其在中期选举中面临的风险，也让美国的战略选择进一步受国内政治裹挟。

​2026年4月17日，清华大学战略与安全研究中心副研究员孙成昊在China Daily发表英文评论文章Transactional Security。文章认为，跨大西洋关系并未走向解体，而是进入了一个新的调整与演化阶段。当前美欧关系正从以共同价值为基础的传统同盟，逐步转向以成本收益为导向的“交易型安全关系”，其背后是美国全球战略重心转移、联盟认知变化以及美欧之间在安全责任与战略理念上的分歧加深。同时，欧洲对美国安全承诺的不确定性日益焦虑，但短期内仍难以摆脱对美国的安全依赖。总体看，跨大西洋关系呈现持续合作但共识弱化的转变，这一变化不仅将重塑美欧关系本身，也将对未来国际秩序的演变产生深远影响。

近期，美国启动对部分已征关税的退款程序，与特朗普政府推动的“大而美”减税法案进入落地阶段，构成了观察2026年美国财政风险的两个重要角度。

近二十年间，国际关系理论经历了从宏大理论论战向中层理论构建的深刻转型。中国国际关系学界在引入和吸收国外理论成果的基础上，也经历了从理论借鉴向理论创新的转变。宏观层次的理论创新已经取得了显著成果，尤其体现在关系主义、道义现实主义和国际政治社会演化理论等由中国本土的国际关系学者所提出的原创性理论上。这些理论成果以国际发表的方式呈现出来，因而得到了国际学术界的关注和讨论，成为中国国际关系学界知识贡献中不可忽视的一部分。这些宏观理论创新是中国国际关系理论研究者最引人注目的理论成果，与此同时，中国学者在中层理论方面的探索，也构成了更广泛的知识生产的组成部分。

2026年3月20日，复旦大学美国研究中心副主任、教授，清华大学战略与安全研究中心特约专家、中国论坛特约专家赵明昊于《南华早报》（South China Morning Post）发表文章US war on Iran presents a complex strategic challenge for China。赵明昊提出，美国对伊朗的军事行动被视为一场“选择性战争”，其战略目标模糊且引发美国国内政治分歧。这场冲突不仅对中国的能源安全构成挑战，也会给中国在中东地区的经贸和投资布局带来重要影响。中国在劝和促谈方面发挥积极作用，希望促进中东地区可持续的和平。

围绕人工智能（AI）企业“模型蒸馏”的争议近日迅速升温，OpenAI、Anthropic与Alphabet等美国头部企业罕见采取协调行动，引发国际舆论关注。AI“蒸馏”，通俗来讲就是让一个AI模型，通过与另一个模型的交互去学习其“做题思路”，从而获得更多本领。

In 1969, with the Cultural Revolution raging at home andtensions rising abroad, Chinese leader Mao Zedong instructedfour elder military leaders to study the relationships between China and the world’s two superpowers. Using Mao’s theoretical framework of “contradictions,” which states that the struggle between opposing forces is what drives history forward, they posited that the contradiction between the United States and the Soviet Union was greater than that between China and the Soviet Union, which in turn was greater than that between China and the United States.

今天华盛顿的迷茫并不是一个短期现象，而是美国转型期的“症状”，它表现为社会压力正重排国家议程，总统权力集中正提高决策效率，战略界认知逻辑在分裂中前进，美国参与国际事务的方式全面转变，中国重要性正逐步降低。这五种变化环环相扣、从内而外，共同构成美国“转型期”的基本逻辑。对中国而言，真正重要的不是争论美国是不是在走下坡路，而是看清一个仍然试图塑造历史却不愿按旧规则付出代价的美国。

Bangladesh’s garment industry employs around 4 million workers. Their labour built something larger than an export sector – it built a tax base. The industry generates more than 80 per cent of the country’s export earnings and contributes roughly 11 per cent of its GDP. The taxes paid by workers and the wider economy they sustain fund a meaningful share of Bangladesh’s public schools and basic healthcare.

On February 6th, the United States and Iran held indirect negotiations in Muscat, the capital of Oman. The U.S. side was led by Middle East Envoy Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, while the Iranian side was headed by Foreign Minister Araghchi. Intriguingly, unlike previous negotiations, General Cooper, the highest-ranking military commander in the region as head of U.S. Central Command, participated as a member of the U.S. delegation. Why have these Oman negotiations garnered such global attention? What are the historical roots surrounding the nuclear issue, and what are the prospects for these talks? This article attempts to provide answers.

Since October 2019, the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program and the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University have jointly organized a U.S.–China Track II Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence and National Security. This article is co-authored by members of the U.S. and Chinese delegations who participated in the dialogue. The excerpt presented here reflects the perspectives of Xiao Qian, Deputy Director of CISS and Vice President of the Institute for AI International Governance at Tsinghua University.

In the repeated cycles of confrontation and detente that define U.S.-Chinese relations, a paradox has emerged. Ec0oomic relations between the two countries are more fraught than ever

Risk dominates current discussions on AI governance. This July, Geoffrey Hinton, a Nobel and Turing laureate, addressed the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai. His speech bore the title he has used almost exclusively since leaving Google in 2023: "Will Digital Intelligence Replace Biological Intelligence?" He stressed, once again, that AI might soon surpass humanity and threaten our survival.

On September 9, 2025, the second Financial Review Asia Summit was convened in Sydney, Australia. Co-hosted by the Australian Financial Review (AFR) and the Asia Society Australia, the summit brought together prominent figures from the political and business communities of Asia and Australia to discuss development and business opportunities in Asia and assess potential risks arising from geopolitical shifts. Fu Ying, Former Chinese Ambassador to the United Kingdom and Australia, was invited to attend the event. She delivered a speech and engaged in a dialogue with Jessica Sier, North Asia Correspondent of AFR.

America’s AI Action Plan reveals the close ideological alignment of the Trump administration with the “tech right,” such as permissionless innovation, anti-woke AI and pro-capital innovation culture.

US–China relations under Trump’s second term have entered a fragile stalemate. While complete economic decoupling remains elusive, both sides are shifting toward strategic and psychological disengagement – reducing reliance on each other’s long-term strategies. This trend may reduce incentives for negotiation, heighten uncertainty over Taiwan, yet also enable future bilateral reorientation.

On July 29, Da Wei, Director of the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, published an article titled “What Does China Want in Ukraine” on the website of Foreign Affairs. In the article, Da Wei outlined China’s principled position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, analyzed the discussions and views within various sectors in China on the Ukraine issue, and offered his assessment of the prospects for peace as well as China’s possible role in the matter.