今年前三个月，中国经济运行起步平稳，发展态势向新向好。3月4日至11日举办的两会明确了5%的经济增长预期指标，强调创新宏观财政政策调控，稳步发展新质生产力，扩大高水平对外开放等重要举措。中国将进一步发挥世界经济发展“稳定锚”作用，共创全球发展合作新机遇。一、中国经济回升向好
1. 2024年国内生产总值达到134.9万亿元、增长5%，增速居世界主要经济体前列，对全球经济增长的贡献率保持在30%左右。
China’s economy expanded at a 5% annual pace in 2024, slower than the year before but in line with Beijing’s target of “around 5%” growth, thanks to strong exports and recent stimulus measures.
(Jan 17, 2025, “China’s economy expands 5% in 2024, hitting target helped by strong exports, stimulus measures”, AP news)
Despite a backdrop of domestic challenges – ranging from a significant restructuring of the real estate market to subdued consumer confidence – China managed to record an impressive 5% economic growth in 2024. This resilient performance is particularly striking, given the current global uncertainties. In fact, over the past decade or so, China’s economic output has contributed nearly 30% to worldwide growth.
(Feb 21, 2025, “China’s evolving role in the global economy”, China-Britain Business Council)
2. 2024年我国货物进出口总值43.85万亿元，同比增长5.02%。中国出口国际市场份额14.2%，连续7年保持货物贸易第一大国地位。
Buttressed by a massive spike in exports, all-time highs in car and computer chip shipments and its largest-ever share of trade with countries in the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s record-breaking trade surplus in 2024 underscored the resilience of its supply chain. In 2024, exports grew 5.9 per cent year on year to US$3.58 trillion.
(Jan 14, 2025, “China posts record trade surplus as export wave finds shores outside US”, South China Morning Post)
3. 政府工作报告首次提出“实施更加积极的财政政策”，将连续实施了14年的“稳健的货币政策”调整为“适度宽松的货币政策”， 充分体现了党中央对宏观调控思路的创新。1）设定5%左右经济增速目标，既是稳就业、防风险、惠民生的需要，也有经济增长潜力和有利条件支撑。The Chinese government unveiled an annual economic growth target of “around 5%” on Wednesday, despite the possible negative impact of a looming trade war with the United States. The target signals the government’s intention to try to stabilize growth in challenging economic times.(Mar 5, 2025, “China sticks to an economic growth target of ‘around 5%' despite a looming trade war with US”, AP news)2）赤字率首次达到4%左右，释放了宏观政策加码稳增长的清晰信号，有助于增强市场信心。China sets its fiscal deficit target to 5.66 trillion yuan, or around 4% of gross domestic product, to counter the effects of rising US tariffs. The government will issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long special sovereign bonds and increase spending on a trade-in program to boost consumer spending.(Mar 5, 2025, “China Targets Record Deficit to Buffer Economy Against Tariffs”, Bloomberg)China on Wednesday announced plans to raise its fiscal deficit to "around 4%" of gross domestic product, a rare increase that marks a meaningful shift in policy. It marks the highest fiscal deficit on record going back to 2010, with the prior high at 3.6% in 2020, according to Wind Information.(Mar 4, 2025, “China raises budget deficit target to levels not seen since at least 2010 to shore up growth”, CNBC)二、 加快培育发展新质生产力，加快建设现代化产业体系。中国作为全球经济增长的重要推动力量，其发展经验可为许多发展中国家提供借鉴。1. 推动传统产业改造提升。加快制造业重点产业链高质量发展，强化产业基础再造和重大技术装备攻关。The agenda emphasized innovation-driven growth, focusing on fundamental research, breakthroughs in core technologies, and scaling up applications of new products, technologies, and scenarios. The conference also called for more social capital participation in venture capital, the cultivation of innovative enterprises, and the active use of digital and green technologies to transform and upgrade traditional industries.(Mar 10, 2025, “The Policies Shaping China’s Industry Landscape in 2025”, China Briefing)2. 激发数字经济创新活力。持续推进“人工智能+”行动，将数字技术与制造优势、市场优势充分结合，努力推动人工智能赋能千行百业、走进千家万户。1）多地政务系统接入Deepseek，打造更加智慧、高效、便捷的政务服务新场景。Courthouse officials are using DeepSeek to draft legal judgments within minutes. Doctors at a hospital in Fuzhou, in eastern China, are using it to propose treatment plans. In Meizhou, a city in southern China, it is DeepSeek that answers a government help line.(Mar 18, 2025, “From Courtrooms to Crisis Lines, Chinese Officials Embrace DeepSeek”, The New York Times)Local governments in China are embracing DeepSeek, too. For example, Shenzhen officials have put DeepSeek-powered applications on the cloud “for all government agencies across the city.” Changsha, the capital of Hunan province, is using DeepSeek to analyze real-time urban management data as part of a smart city program. Thousands of government officials and employees across the country are also attending lectures given by professors or experts at state-owned companies that explain what DeepSeek is and how its technology can be used.(Mar 12, 2025, “Chinese Companies Rush to Put DeepSeek in Everything”, Wired)
2）数字化、人工智能和先进通信网络等前沿技术与新型电力系统深度融合赋能，国家电网发布首个千亿级多模态电力行业大模型。On December 19th, State Grid Corporation of China released the first multi-modal industry model worth billions of yuan in China - the Guangming Electric Power Model. This model, like an artificial intelligence expert in the field of energy and power, can provide a "super brain" for the safe and stable operation of the power grid, promote the consumption of new energy, and provide good power supply services.(Dec 20, 2024, “State Grid Corporation of China releases the first multi-modal power industry model worth billions of yuan in China”, Outlook New Era)State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd recently launched a prediction center leveraging artificial intelligence to precisely forecast electricity use. By introducing deep learning and no-code machine learning, and analyzing historical power load and meteorological data, it effectively enhances the power prediction capability under complex and variable conditions.(Feb 20, 2025, “State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power uses AI to forecast electricity consumption”, China Daily)3）AI技术与金融服务深度融合，加速数字金融智能升级, 塑造数字金融新生态。China’s financial sector, from banks to brokerages, is rapidly incorporating DeepSeek, the nation’s champion in AI, for customer service, data analysis, and email sorting. Dozens of firms have committed to implementing DeepSeek or specific applications of the AI large language model since January, when the Hangzhou-based app developer emerged as China’s low-cost alternative to Western competitors such as ChatGPT.(Mar 1, 2025, “Deepseek AI Takes Root In China’s Banks”, Global Finance)三、中国两会再度释放扩大高水平对外开放的信号，积极稳外贸稳外资、以开放促改革促发展。
CCPIT Chairman Ren reiterated China's commitment to high-level opening-up and welcomed multinational companies to deepen their cooperation in China, according to a CCPIT statement.
(Mar 26, 2025, “CCPIT reiterates China’s commitment to high-level opening-up in talks with multinational CEOs”, Global Times)
China has taken solid steps to expand high-level opening-up. Recently, China approved 13 foreign-invested companies for pilot operations in value-added telecom services in Beijing, Shanghai, Hainan and Shenzhen, while granting licenses to wholly foreign-owned hospitals in locations including Shanghai and North China's Tianjin.
(Mar 24, 2025, “China steadily expands institutional opening-up; injects stability into growth: attendee”, Global Times)
四、多场有影响力的国际论坛近期在中国举行，中外专家共同探讨中国和全球所面临的经济挑战和机遇。
1. 3月23至24日中国发展高层论坛2025年年会在京召开，本次论坛传递积极信号：中国将进一步加大对外合作开放，全面释放发展动能。
China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng has reassured foreign business leaders that Beijing will continue to open up its market and welcome more investment from multinational companies. “China remains committed to expanding high-level opening-up of market, improving the business environment and welcoming more multinational companies to deepen their investment in China,” He said, adding that China’s economy is “resilient, full of potential and vitality.”
(Mar 24, 2025, “Beijing pledges greater market access as top global CEOs gather at the China Development Forum”, CNBC)
(图片来源：Xinhua)
2. 3月25至28日博鳌亚洲论坛2025年年会在海南举办，与会专家探讨世界变局下亚洲合作与发展。
Zhou said that in light of the immense changes in the world, proactively shaping Asia's future has become a major and urgent task for Asian countries. He further noted that Asian nations must actively promote regional economic integration and shape an inclusive, equitable form of economic globalization. Asian countries need to unite in opposing unilateralism and trade protectionism, and uphold true multilateralism, the vice chairman said.
(Mar 25, 2025, “Calls for closer cooperation resonate at Boao forum amid uncertainties”, Global Times)
Economic experts emphasized at the Boao Forum for Asia the importance of China's economic opening, particularly in cooperation opportunities for the region and the world.
(Mar 27, 2025, “Economic experts highlight China’s economic opening during Boao Forum”, Presena Latina)
3. 3月19日至21日，清华大学战略与安全研究中心第七届战略与安全国际论坛成功举办，中外专家就“全球秩序之变：经济关系与科技突破”开展讨论。与会专家认为，当前全球经济格局受到中美经济走势影响，科技领域的竞争成为全球经济变革的核心驱动力。同时，全球经济规则正在被重塑，经济安全、关税及产业政策深刻影响国际贸易体系。科技民族主义的兴起可能导致全球技术体系的分裂。
Participating experts believed that the current global economic landscape was influenced by the economic trends of China and the United States, and that competition in the field of science and technology had become the core driving force of global economic change. At the same time, global economic rules are being reshaped, and economic security, tariffs and industrial policies are profoundly affecting the international trading system. The rise of technological nationalism could lead to a split in the global technology system.
(Mar 21, 2025, “CISS成功举办第七届战略与安全国际论坛”, CISS)
