中国论坛《参考观点》（第52期)｜特朗普的关税战反噬美国经济

2025-05-12
导语
2025年以来，特朗普政府频繁以“国家安全”或“公平贸易”为由，对多国发动关税战 。特朗普更是威胁自6月1日起对进口自欧盟的商品征收50%关税，招致欧盟强烈不满。在世界经济复苏乏力、多边机制受阻的背景下，美国的所谓“对等关税“关税政策，不仅将严重扰乱国际贸易秩序，加剧全球通胀与不确定风险，也必将反噬自身经济稳定。


一、特朗普关税政策背后的多重动因：贸易逆差、政治周期与产业保护


1. 在特朗普政府延续任期的背景下，对华再度加税不仅是其“美国优先”战略的延伸体现，更反映出其政策周期内强化国内产业保护、回应结构性经济焦虑的政治意图。面对美国国内对制造业空心化、就业流失、贸易逆差等问题的长期不满，特朗普政府将中国视为“经济威胁”的核心对象，试图借高关税制造“施压-回流”的外部激励机制，以稳固传统制造业州选民的政治支持。


Fears of a recession have surged as Trump has launched a global trade war, hiking tariffs to levels that economists warn could grind trade with some countries – notably China – nearly to a halt. The moves have shaken both investors and companies.

(Apr 30, 2025, “Trump touts economy at Michigan 100-day rally, as Americans grow wary”, Reuters)


The president, who said the tariffs were designed to boost domestic manufacturing, used aggressive rhetoric to describe a global trade system that the United States helped to build after World War II, saying “our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered” by other nations.


(Apr 3, 2025, “Trump announces sweeping new tariffs to promote US manufacturing, risking inflation and trade wars”, AP News)


2. 同时，关税也被视为服务于美国国家产业战略的多功能工具，体现出美国政府对中国产业崛起的系统性回应。当前，中国在电动车、绿色能源、人工智能等高技术领域的快速增长，被美方视为对自身经济安全和技术优势的潜在挑战。特朗普政府试图通过关税压制中国在全球中高端产业链的市场份额，迫使美国企业回流、加快本土替代，借此提高美国在全球制造业中的“再定位”能力。



Auto manufacturers have been walking a fine line with the administration, seeking concessions that would maintain some semblance of stability in the industry without drawing Trump’s wrath. There’s also concern that trade disputes will hold up key parts moving across borders, causing delays for manufacturing.

(Apr 30, 2025, “Rivian Stockpiled EV Batteries From Asia Ahead of Trump Tariffs”, Bloomberg)


U.S. President Donald Trump's rapidly changing trade policy and levies of at least 145% on China have forced many automakers, including Stellantis (STLAM.MI), General Motors (GM.N) and Volvo Cars (VOLCARb.ST), to pull their forecasts and several others to warn of profit and revenue hits.


(Apr 30, 2025, “EV maker Polestar pauses annual forecast amid tariff uncertainty”, Reuters)


AWS relies heavily on high-end computing gear, much of it manufactured in China. While some semiconductor components were recently exempted from tariffs, other critical data center parts may still be affected.


(Apr 30, 2025, “AWS preps staff for customer concerns over tariffs, data risks, and possible foreign cloud restrictions by Trump”, Business Insider)


图片
（图片来源：US-China Focus）


二、 美关税政策对全球经济和多边机制都将产生深远影响。美国系列关税政策，特别是针对主要贸易伙伴（如中国、欧盟等）加征的高额关税，其影响远超出双边范畴，对全球经济的稳定运行和以规则为基础的多边贸易机制构成了深远的、结构性的挑战。

1.包括欧盟、日本、中国在内的世界主要经济体作为美国关税的主要对象，受到直接贸易冲击，造成市场不确定性增加、成本上升，供应链重构等负面溢出效益。

The latest calculations by the German Economic Institute show that if the United States continues to impose a 50% tariff on EU products until the end of 2028, the German economy will suffer a cumulative loss of about 200 billion euros. This year's GDP will be reduced by 0.1%, and the decline will further increase thereafter - between 2025 and 2028, economic output will be 1.1% lower on average than without the tariff escalation. If the EU implements reciprocal countermeasures, the cumulative losses may increase to 250 billion euros.


(May 27, 2025, “As the US-EU trade conflict escalates, Germany may face a cumulative loss of 250 billion euros”, China News）


The US only buys about 5% of what Australian businesses sell overseas, but economists say the entire world, and especially trade-exposed nations like Australia, would lose from America raising its protectionist walls to the highest levels since 1909. The chief economist at KPMG, Brendan Rynne, estimates that the average tax rate on US imports is set to soar by more than 18 percentage points. In Rynne’s model, the world economy as a result would shrink by about 0.4%. And as a country that has depended on trade to drive prosperity, he estimates the new tariffs will deliver a $27bn blow to Australia’s economy, or as much as 1% of GDP.


(Apr 30, 2025, “Trump’s tariffs could deliver a $27bn blow to Australia – and the cost of a global trade war would be far higher”, The Guardian）


2. 美国关税政策将加剧发展中国家经济发展困境，承受不对称冲击，进而导致世界经济分化加剧。

Some of the world's least developed countries, including Lesotho, Cambodia, Laos, Madagascar and Myanmar, may look to improve regional trade relations to absorb the loss of some of the U.S. market for their exports, the ITC said. Bangladesh, the world’s second largest apparel exporter, could lose $3.3 billion in annual exports to the U.S. by 2029 if the U.S. tariff of 37% stays after the pause, ITC data found. It may look to European markets as an alternative as they still hold growth potential.


(Apr 11, 2025, “Impact of tariffs on developing countries could be 'catastrophic', says UN trade agency”, Reuters）


The model suggests that other major US trading partners such as Canada and Mexico would also experience deep export declines of over 5% in both scenarios. Roughly 75% of Canada’s exports head south towards the US. Among the developing Asian economies, Nepal, Pakistan and the Philippines would experience substantial export declines. This is particularly the case in the second scenario, with losses ranging from 2% to 4.4%. These countries are particularly vulnerable to reciprocal tariffs because they rely heavily on exports and are deeply tied to global supply and production chains.


(May 2, 2025, “How Trump’s tariffs could hit developing economies – even those not involved in the trade war”, The Conversation）


3. 特朗普政府绕开多边贸易规则频繁加税，使WTO争端解决机制遭受重创，严重削弱了多边规则的权威性和约束力, 鼓励单边主义和保护主义蔓延，令多边贸易秩序面临实质性削弱，全球治理领导力出现真空。

The Trump Administration has repeatedly criticised the World Trade Organisation (WTO) for allegedly treating the US unfairly. As the US-China trade war continues, there’s growing unease that US influence at the WTO could severely affect the body’s ability to resolve trade disputes. Since 2016, Washington has blocked the reappointment of judges to the Appellate Body of the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Body, which was established to deal with disputes between WTO members.

Terms for two of the incumbent judges are due to expire in December 2019, but Jiang warns that the high potential for conflict of interest could prevent the Dispute Settlement Body from issuing judgments much earlier. "If a recusal request is raised for any reason and agreed to there will be no quorum of judges, which would delay all the cases and there will be no decisions from now on," he says. "These are the ways the US is trying to sabotage the system and I’m not optimistic about the WTO being able to settle this war." 

(May, 2025, “US-China trade war intensifies as WTO reaches ‘debilitating’ dispute settlement impasse”, International Bar Association）


三、美国发起的贸易战火终将反噬自身，将对美国经济造成严重的负面影响。


1. 国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布的《世界经济展望报告》大幅下调2025年美国经济增长预期，较1月预测值低0.9个百分点，在发达经济体中下调幅度最大。


The U.S. economy will experience sluggish growth in 2025 due to an escalating trade war and "high levels of policy uncertainty," the International Monetary Fund said in a report Tuesday. The projections reinforce economists' warnings about the negative repercussions of President Trump's tariffs on the economy.


The U.S. economy will grow 1.8% this year, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook, down 0.9% from January and a full percentage point from last year's projection of 2.8%. Growth for 2026 is expected to be slightly lower at 1.7%.


(April 22, 2025, “IMF forecasts slower U.S. economic growth in 2025, pointing to escalating trade war” ，CBS News）


2.2025年一季度，美国GDP环比年化下降0.3%，创三年来最差季度表现，高盛更将增速预期下调至-0.8%。通胀率持续高企至4.2%，消费者年均承担关税成本超1300美元，沃尔玛、亚马逊等零售巨头被迫暂停对华加征关税，并标注“关税成本由美方承担”。与此同时，美国制造业PMI连续6个月低于荣枯线，企业破产数量同比激增37%，失业率回升至4.1%。


The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of 2025 on an import surge at the start of President Donald Trump’s second term in office as he wages a potentially costly trade war.


Gross domestic product, a sum of all the goods and services produced from January through March, fell at a 0.3% annualized pace, according to a Commerce Department report Wednesday adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation. This was the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 of 2022.


(April 30, 2025,” U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses”, CNBC)


3.贸易战极大打击美国普通消费者对美国经济和就业市场的信心。


Americans’ confidence in the economy slumped for the fifth straight month to the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as anxiety over the impact of tariffs takes a heavy toll.


The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.9 points in April to 86, its lowest reading since May 2020. Nearly one-third of consumers expect hiring to slow in the coming months, nearly matching the level reached in April 2009, when the economy was mired in the Great Recession.


A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market plunged 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level in more than 13 years. The reading is well below 80, which typically signals a recession ahead.


(April 29, 2025, “As trade war stokes anxiety, consumer confidence plummets to COVID-era lows”, PBS News）


4. 美国一系列的关税政策使当地企业经营成本和消费成本上涨，供应链被干扰。关税战将导致贸易活动降温, 并拖垮美国本国经济。


Mr. Trump is taking a wrecking ball to the pillars of American power and innovation. His tariffs are endangering U.S. companies’ access to global markets and supply chains. He is slashing public research funding and gutting our universities, pushing talented researchers to consider leaving for other countries. He wants to roll back programs for technologies like clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing and is wiping out American soft power in large swaths of the globe.


(May 19, 2025, “In the Future, China Will Be Dominant. The U.S. Will Be Irrelevant”，The New York Times）

编辑：周杼樾

审核：中国论坛


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