编者按
基础研究在国际战略研究中发挥着不可替代的关键作用。清华大学战略与安全研究中心一直致力于鼓励和指导青年学子开展基础研究训练，从而形成一手、长线的资料积累，构建全景、动态的观察视角。2021年寒假期间，CISS的部分实习生与中心研究人员一道，共同完成了对拜登团队竞选期间（含至过渡政府和正式就任初期）涉华观点的搜集和整理。如今拜登政府已正式运行两月有余，回望这些竞选期间的观点，对照其所言所行，或将有助于推进关于美国对华战略规划的了解，促进中美关系局面的改善发展。CISS公众号从今日开始摘选研究成果内容，逐期推送，以飨读者。
一、 战略层面
关于对中国的战略定位，2020年9月25日，布林肯就全球挑战问题接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻台（CBS News）采访时称，来自中国日益增长的挑战，是美国所面临的最大外部挑战。涉及经济、技术、军事、外交等多方面。然而，这种关系有对立和竞争方面，但也有合作方面。
I think we all recognize China poses a growing challenge, arguably the biggest challenge, we face from another nation state: economically, technologically, militarily, even diplomatically. And, you know, the relationship has adversarial aspects, competitive aspects, but also cooperative ones.
布林肯认为，在与中国接触时，保护和促进美国的安全、繁荣和价值观的最有效战略是让自己在与中国接触时处于有利地位。两国关系应该按照美国而不是中国的想法发展。
I think the question we have to ask ourselves is, 'What is the most effective strategy to protect and advance our security, our prosperity, our values when it comes to engaging with China?' And I think the Vice President would tell you that we have to start by putting ourselves in a position of strength from which to engage China so that the relationship moves forward more on our terms than on theirs.
布林肯指出，来自中国的挑战，根源在于美国自身政治制度、经济实力、民主活力、劳动者竞争力以及与联盟和伙伴的关系都被特朗普总统大肆破坏，但所幸为时不晚。这些方面也是推进美中两国在共同关心问题上合作的最佳基础，无论是气候变化、防扩散还是全球健康。
…that in many ways the challenge posed by China is almost less about their strength and more about our own self-inflicted weaknesses. The challenge is about us. And so that means we have to focus on the competitiveness of our own economy and workers, the strength of our own democracy and political system, the vibrancy of our own alliances and partnerships, and the assertion of our own values, all of which President Trump has done so much to undermine, but all of which are actually within our control. So that's where the Vice President would focus first, in making those investments. And that's also, by the way, the best basis upon which to advance cooperation with China on issues of mutual concern, whether it's climate change, whether it's nonproliferation or global health.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-foreign-policy-adviser-antony-blinken-on-top-global-challenges/?intcid=CNM-00-10abd1h
2021年2月1日，布林肯在接受MSNBC电视台记者采访时再次表示，中国是美国面临的最大威胁，但尚在可控范围内，只是非常复杂。
But the good news about each of these is that they’re fully within our control.；There’s no doubt that China poses the most significant challenge to us of any other country, but it’s a complicated one.
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-andrea-mitchell-of-msnbc-andrea-mitchell-reports/
2020年7月9日，布林肯在接受学者沃尔特·米德访谈时表示，就两国各自的的战略利益而言，过去三年半，中国处于更有利的地位，美国处于弱势地位，拜登政府将在这样的基础上开始重建。
My concern now is that in terms of China’s strategic interests and in terms of our own, China, as a result of the last three and a half years is in a stronger position and we’re in a weaker position and that’s what a Biden administration would have to start to rebuild from.
各方越来越认识到，中国造成一系列新的挑战，尤其是在经贸领域。然而这些挑战都是因为缺乏对等所致，因此都是不可持续的，需要美国加以应对。
There is a growing consensus across parties that China poses a series of new challenges and that the status quo was really not sustainable particularly when it comes to China’s commercial and economic practices, the lack of reciprocity in the relationships or something that couldn’t be sustained and needed to be and continue to need to be dealt with.
https://www.hudson.org/research/16210-transcript-dialogues-on-american-foreign-policy-and-world-affairs-a-conversation-with-former-deputy-secretary-of-state-antony-blinken
关于应对中国的外交战略，布林肯多次强调要采取依靠盟友的路径。2020年7月9日，布林肯在接受学者沃尔特·米德访谈时表示，美国需靠实力应对与中国的竞争，而实力来自美国强大的联盟。
There are adversarial aspects to the relationship, there’s certainly competitive ones, and there’s still some cooperative ones, too. But whether we’re dealing with any of those aspects of the relationship, we have to be able to approach China from a position of strength, not weakness.And that strength, I think, comes from having strong alliances, something China does not have.
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-andrea-mitchell-of-msnbc-andrea-mitchell-reports/
布林肯在2019年1月4日发表于布鲁金斯学会的一篇文章中提出，鉴于中国“一带一路”倡议以服务自身利益的方式拉近其与亚洲、欧洲和中东国家的距离，民主国家也需要一个全球视角和新制度来打造共同的战略、经济和政治愿景。
As China’s Belt and Road initiative draws Asia, Europe and the Middle East closer together in ways that serve Beijing’s interests, the democracies also need a global perspective—and new institutions to forge a common strategic, economic and political vision.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/01/04/america-first-is-only-making-the-world-worse-heres-a-better-approach/
2020年11月26日，在接受伦敦政经学院美国中心采访时，布林肯强调事关安全和技术的议题上，拜登政府会保持对华强硬立场，美国会在这些对华议题上加强同盟友的协调。但拜登政府也会为中美在气候变化等全球议题上的接触留有空间。
Even on China, where we can expect the Biden administration to maintain a tough stance on issues related to security and technology, we will see greater coordination with allies on these efforts, with room for engagement on global issues like climate change.
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/107768/
二、经贸问题
2019年1月9日，布林肯就情报问题接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻台（CBS News）采访时称，美国在贸易及其相关领域对华采取极具对抗性的手段没有错，因为两国商业关系缺乏对等，完全不可持续。
a very confrontational approach over trade and related issues which is not wrong in the sense that the lack of reciprocity in the commercial relationship was totally un-sustained.
美国退出TPP是一个巨大的战略错误。TPP是可借力改变中国行为的一个有力杠杆，因为TPP成员国经济总量占全球GDP的40%，且中国意欲加入其中。中国强制技术转移、知识版权盗窃、缺乏透明度、国有企业的不公平竞争等做法，让我们的盟友也都遭受到了同样的不公。而且在应对中国问题上，我们的盟友与我们处境相同。
…throwing out the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a huge strategic mistake. This was our best lever to change Chinese behavior. 40% of world GDP with us in it represented, something that China would want to get into, not stay out of, that's gone. Not making common cause with our allies who are similarly situated when it comes to China, who are aggrieved in the same way with technology transfer, the theft of intellectual property, the lack of transparency, unfair competition from state-owned enterprises.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-antony-blinken-talks-with-michael-morell-on-intelligence-matters/?intcid=CNM-00-10abd1h
2020年7月9日，布林肯在接受学者沃尔特·米德访谈，2020年9月25日，布林肯就全球挑战问题接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻台（CBS News）采访时均表示，联合盟友对抗中国的路径是可行的。特别在贸易领域，当美国试图独自应对中国时，盟国和伙伴出于自保，不会站在美国这边。如果联合伙伴和盟友，共同占到世界GDP的50%或60%，中国将很难忽视这样的力量。
one of the things I think that’s been a deficiency in the Trump administration’s approach to contending with China is it’s done so not with our allies and partners but without them, indeed while alienating them. We need to rally our allies and partners instead of alienating them to deal with some of the challenges that China poses. For example, on trade, as you know, Walter, we’re about 25% of world GDP alone. When we’re working with allies and partners, depending on who we bring into the mix, it’s 50 or 60% of GDP. That’s a lot more weight and a lot harder for China to ignore.
https://www.hudson.org/research/16210-transcript-dialogues-on-american-foreign-policy-and-world-affairs-a-conversation-with-former-deputy-secretary-of-state-antony-blinken
Look, there's no guarantee. But, for example,on trade, when we're acting alone, when we manage to pick fights with with our partners and allies who are similarly situated when it comes to China. And so they're not with us and we're trying to deal with this alone. We're about 25 percent of the world's GDP. When we have our partners and allies with us, we're 50 or 60 percent of the world's GDP. That's a lot harder for China to ignore.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-foreign-policy-adviser-antony-blinken-on-top-global-challenges/?intcid=CNM-00-10abd1h
2020年5月19日，布林肯接受CBSNews采访时表示，美中两国经济完全脱钩不现实，但需要意识到涉及国家安全、国民健康等关键产业本土化的重要性。
But I think you have to be careful in doing that, in a sense, not to overcorrect and assume that that means that everything suddenly gets brought, it gets brought home. That is not the way that economies can ultimately function in the 21st century. We can't disentangle everything. It's far too complicated. We're far too intertwined. And there are benefits from that. But when it comes to things that are truly critical, that go to our national security, that go to our national health, we're going have to look very carefully at that and make sure that we can protect ourselves if something like this were to happen again.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-joe-biden-foreign-policy-adviser-antony-blinken-on-covid-shortfalls-failures-in-syria/
2021年2月1日，布林肯在接受MSNBC电视台记者采访时表示，是否取消对中国的关税，取决于对美国利益的损益判断。
the first question we ask ourselves is: Is this advancing the interests of our own people? Is it making them more prosperous? Is it advancing their security? Is it extending their values? And so when it comes to something like a tariff, is it doing more harm to us than it is to the country they’re being wielded against? That’s the question we’re asking.
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-andrea-mitchell-of-msnbc-andrea-mitchell-reports/
2019年1月2日，布林肯在《华盛顿邮报》撰文指出，美国人从未回避竞争和创新带来的挑战，也不应该接受1930年代的贸易保护主义，这种贸易保护主义破坏了全球经济。当美国退出诸如TPP之类的贸易协定时，就等于将胜利拱手让给了中国等国家。如果美国选择退出，它们将按照自己的而不是美国的利益型塑全球贸易和创新。
Americans have never backed away from the challenges posed by competition and innovation. Trying to revive the industrial economy of the 1950s is impossible; nor should we embrace the protectionism of the 1930s that helped destroy the global economy and hasten world war. When we pull out of trade agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, we hand a win to countries such as China. If we opt out, they will shape global trade and innovation to their benefit, not ours.
美国应该坚持在基于规则的体系中竞争，应该利用市场力量为保护工人、环境、知识产权和中产阶级利益，同时坚持透明度和基本的商业对等。
We should insist on competing in a rules-based system that protects our people from the aggressive state capitalism of modern autocracies. We should use our market power to set the highest standards for protecting workers, the environment, intellectual property and middle-class wages, while insisting on transparency and basic commercial reciprocity. In other words, we’ll treat you the way you treat us.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-first-is-only-making-the-world-worse-heres-a-better-approach/2019/01/01/1272367c-079f-11e9-88e3-989a3e456820_story.html
三、科技问题
2019年1月2日，布林肯在《华盛顿邮报》的文章中强调，美国的科技公司需要对国家安全承担更多责任，要防止外国人操纵美国政治体系，加强保护数据和隐私。
Our tech firms need to take more responsibility for national security, both in preventing foreign efforts to manipulate our political system, and protecting data and privacy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-first-is-only-making-the-world-worse-heres-a-better-approach/2019/01/01/1272367c-079f-11e9-88e3-989a3e456820_story.html
布林肯在2019年1月4日发表于布鲁金斯学会的一篇文章中提出以人工智能为代表的新技术，将重塑全球未来力量的对比。美国需要在竞争中保持领先，不能让位给中国或任何其他国家。为了维持美国的优势，既要保持思想的自由流动和国际合作以激发创新，又需要打击间谍活动、技术转让和知识产权盗窃。
We also need to stay ahead of the competition in new technologies, especially artificial intelligence, which will reshape the future global balance of power. We cannot cede to China or anyone else a technological sphere of influence. To maintain our edge, we must preserve the free flow of ideas and international collaboration that spark innovation, but we also need to crack down on espionage, technology transfer and intellectual property theft.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/01/04/america-first-is-only-making-the-world-worse-heres-a-better-approach/
四、军事问题
2020年5月19日，布林肯接受CBSNews采访时表示，美国制定亚太政策的一个基本面是，作为亚太大国，美国在亚太地区的存在要确保人员、产品和思想的自由流动。美国要确保亚太地区包括中国在内的每个国家都遵守国际法，履行义务，维护航行自由。拜登副总统一直是所谓航行自由的坚决拥护者。
I can tell you this. This is about making sure that every country in the region, including China, follows international law, lives up to its obligations and preserves freedom of navigation. …The vice president's been a strong proponent of so-called freedom of navigation operations. Just to again underscore the point that our presence in the Asia-Pacific as a as a Pacific power is to make sure, among other things, that people products as well as ideas in a different space can continue to flow freely. And we would make that for sure. A foundational aspect of our of our policy in the area.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-joe-biden-foreign-policy-adviser-antony-blinken-on-covid-shortfalls-failures-in-syria/?intcid=CNM-00-10abd1h
2019年1月4日，布林肯发表于布鲁金斯学会发表的一篇文章中表示，负责任的外交力求在危机失控前采取防御措施。积极的外交与军事威慑应当有效结合。
A responsible foreign policy seeks to prevent crises or contain them before they spiral out of control. That requires a combination of active diplomacy and military deterrence.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/01/04/america-first-is-only-making-the-world-worse-heres-a-better-approach/
2020年7月9日，布林肯在接受学者沃尔特·米德访谈时表示，美国应加大投资，确保美国军事姿态能够阻止中国的侵略。
making sure that our military is postured so that it can deter Chinese aggression; and investing in our own people so that they can fully compete.
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-andrea-mitchell-of-msnbc-andrea-mitchell-reports/
五、全球问题
2020年5月20日，布林肯接受CBSNews采访时表示，美国和中国是竞争对手，但竞争也有很多好处，一是对自己的人员进行投资，以确保他们可以有效竞争。二是与志同道合的国家/地区合作，以确保游戏规则公平，因为竞争只有在规则基本公平的情况下才是好的。当我们与亚洲和欧洲的其他民主国家合作时，我们总共占世界GDP的50％至60％。因此，杠杆作用将非常有效。使用杠杆这并不是要击败中国，而是要求中国履行其作为国际主要行动者之一的责任。也会为两国合作带来机会，面对一些疫情、气候变化、大规模杀伤性武器的扩散，任何一个单独行动的国家都无法真正有效地应对这些挑战，甚至美国也无法独自应对。中国需要成为这一游戏的一部分，但是我们必须从充满信心和实力的角度与北京接触。
The United States and China are competitors. And there is nothing wrong with competition. And in fact, it can be a very good thing, provided you've done a few things that we haven't seen in the last few years. One is that you invest in your own people to make sure that they can compete effectively. The second is that you work with like minded countries to make sure that the rules of the game are fair because competition is only good if it is basically fair. And there, too, we've abandoned that effort. We are about 25 percent of the world's GDP in the United States. When we're working together with other democracies in Asia and in Europe, we're 50 to 60 percent of the world's GDP. So when China is engaged in practices that are unfair and we want those to change, it's a lot harder for them to ignore 60 percent of the world's GDP than it is to ignore a quarter up. So there is real leverage. And again, this is not about beating up on China. This is about insisting that China live up to its responsibilities as one of the leading international actors. And I think doing that from a position of strength, we're going to be much more effective. And secondly, it also creates opportunities, hopefully, for some cooperation. Think of some of the big ticket items that we have to face as countries. Disease that we're living through right now. Climate change, the spread of weapons of mass destruction. None of those can really effectively be dealt with by any one country acting alone and even the United States can't handle them alone. China needs to be part of the game on that. And I would hope that they would be. But we have to engage them from. We have to engage Beijing from a position of confidence and strength. That's something we've lost in the last few years. And I think we come back to it under a biden administration.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-joe-biden-foreign-policy-adviser-antony-blinken-on-covid-shortfalls-failures-in-syria/?intcid=CNM-00-10abd1h
2019年1月9日以及2020年5月20日，布林肯接受CBSNews采访时表示，美国从各种国际金融机构种抽身离开的同时，中国在其中的投票份额则与日俱增。而这意味着，在美国的领导力和美国模式缺失的情况下，中国模式所获得的默认的胜利并不是因为它优于美国模式。
…at the same time when we're pulling back from all of that. And that means that, again, in the absence of American leadership, in the absence of an American model, a Chinese model could win by default not because it's better.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-antony-blinken-talks-with-michael-morell-on-intelligence-matters/?intcid=CNM-00-10abd1h
允许中国填补WHO等机构领导角色的空缺，这对美国来说可能不是那么明智。由美国来主导国际组织和国际机构的变革将更有效。
That simply creates a vacuum that someone else is going to fill in. China has now raised his hand and said we're going to fill it. That may not be so smart for us because we want to make sure that the WHO is reformed effectively to be able to deal better than it did with this crisis. And if we're the ones who are helping to guide the reform of the WHO, there's a better chance that that happens. If we're not if we're out of the game and China's in the game, maybe it doesn't happen in the most effective way.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-joe-biden-foreign-policy-adviser-antony-blinken-on-covid-shortfalls-failures-in-syria/?intcid=CNM-00-10abd1h
2020年9月25日，布林肯接受CBS News采访时称，美国必须与韩国和日本等盟国密切合作，敦促中国施加真正的经济压力以迫使朝鲜进入谈判桌。
We have to work closely with allies like South Korea and Japan and press China to build genuine economic pressure to squeeze North Korea to get it to the negotiating table.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-foreign-policy-adviser-antony-blinken-on-top-global-challenges/?intcid=CNM-00-10abd1h
2020年7月9日，在接受学者沃尔特·米德访谈时布林肯强调，应对全球问题的事础是将美国国内事务处理好，利用我们的经济和道德权威来推动世界采取更加坚定的行动。例如，在气候变化问题上，坚持要求世界最大的碳排放国中国停止补贴煤炭出口，停止通过“一带一路”倡议为沿线国家提供价值数十亿美元的化石燃料能源项目提供融资，将污染转移给其他国家。
The benefit of getting things right at home is we can then leverage our economic and moral authority to push the world to take more determined action. Vice President thinks it’s critical and said that on day one of his administration, he would rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement. We’d also look to do a number of other things, for example, locking in enforceable commitments to reduce emissions in global shipping and aviation, pursuing stronger measures to make sure that other nations can’t undercut the United States economically as we meet our own commitments. One, for example, would involve working to insist that China, which is the world’s largest emitter of carbon, stop subsidizing coal exports and outsourcing pollution to other countries by financing billions of dollars’ worth of dirty fossil fuel energy projects through the Belt and Road Initiative.
https://www.hudson.org/research/16210-transcript-dialogues-on-american-foreign-policy-and-world-affairs-a-conversation-with-former-deputy-secretary-of-state-antony-blinken
CISS实习生：崔元睿、许卓凡、应越、王欣然、张昭璞
CISS指导老师：董汀、周武华、王静姝
