中国论坛《参考观点》(第45期)|“中国产能过剩论”扭曲现实

2024-06-05
导语
当前,全球绿色产业加速发展,多国加快制度创新和技术革新步伐。中国在新能源汽车、锂电池和太阳能电池板等新型产业领域的技术和生产能力居世界领先地位,成为相关产业全球供应链的重要组成部分,为应对气候变化作出巨大贡献。在此背景下,部分美西方政客和媒体不断炒作“中国产能过剩论”,试图在新能源汽车、光伏产品等领域抹黑中国。这些指责违背事实和产业逻辑,是保护主义和政治宣传的借口。中国坚持对外开放的基本国策,也希望相关国家为中国企业提供公平和非歧视的营商环境,实现互利共赢。


一、中国强大的制造业,尤其是新能源产业,是世界经济增长和物价稳定的重要推动力。近年来,中国电动汽车、锂电池、光伏产品等出口增多。中国新能源产品的质量和价格满足了许多国家消费者和企业的需求。


In 2023, Chinas lithium batteries, photovoltaic products and electric vehicles, also known as the new trio, recorded a total export of 1.06 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 30 percent. Chinas photovoltaic module production has ranked first in the world for more than ten years, accounting for 80 percent of the world's output. Six of the world's top 10 power battery companies are from China. 


(May 23, 2024, “Hype about China’s ‘Overcapacity’ threatens world economy”,Xinhuanet)


Chinese electric vehicles from makers like BYD arent just cheap — theyre also good. And it retails for just $10,000 in China. Smaller sizes, innovative designs and efficient business practices help keep the prices of Chinese autos down. 


(May 14, 2024, “5 takeaways from Biden's tariff hikes on Chinese electric vehicles”,NPR)


“No other region of the world has a transformation of the automotive industry that is as fast-paced as in China,” Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume said on Wednesday at an event previewing his companys appearance at the auto show. “This market has become something of a fitness centre for us,” he said. “We have to work harder and faster to keep up”. Other automakers expressed similar sentiments. Japans Nissan sent many top executives to the Beijing auto show to feel first-hand the pace of change in China, company President Makoto Uchida said.


(April 25, 2024, “VW and other European electric car makers fight to catch up with China”, Business Standard)


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Photo: Reuters

二、美欧等国鼓动“脱钩”、“去风险”是损人不利己的行为,阻碍科技创新和经济全球化发展。中国的新能源产业推动了世界科技进步,促进了全球制造业的升级和发展。全球绿色发展的需求是逐渐增长而不是有限的,所谓“中国产能过剩冲击世界市场”是伪命题。


1.在世界各国需要迅速减少对化石燃料的依赖之际,美欧等国围堵中国新能源汽车将阻碍本国向零排放车市场的过渡。


Right now the American car market is sorely lacking in smaller, cheaper EVs. Automakers in the U.S. have focused on electrifying bigger, more expensive models, including SUVs, trucks and minivans. The average price of an EV is $55,000, and the high sticker price is one reason EV sales are slowing; price-limited buyers are shut out of the market. Biden’s decision to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs stifles the possibility of competition in the lower end of the car market and means the affordability gap will continue. That will slow the transition to zero-emission vehicles at a time when the U.S. needs to rapidly reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.


(May 17, 2024, “Editorial: China embraced electric vehicles. The U.S. didn’t. Now we’re paying the price”, Los Angeles Times)


2. 美欧等国企业承认,保护主义关税将损害中国和西方国家在新能源和相关产业领域的合作,也将损害其本国利益。


German carmakers, who are extremely reliant on the Chinese market, are particularly vociferous in their opposition to EU countermeasures out of fear they could prompt swift Chinese retaliation. You could very quickly shoot yourself in the foot, BMW CEO Oliver Zipse recently told reporters. BMW imports Chinese-made Mini EVs and the iX3 into Europe and is reliant on the revenues generated from its Chinese business. China is BMWs largest single market, accounting for nearly a third of total sales in the first quarter of 2024. We don't think that our industry needs protection, said Zipse in a meeting with analysts, adding that operating on a global basis gives major automakers an industrial advantage. You can easily endanger that advantage by introducing import tariffs.

The anti-subsidy probe against China is the opposite of what we expect, he said. Over half of Chinese car sales in Europe are from non-Chinese companies. Tariffs are protective measures that essentially harm us. The market share of Chinese manufacturers in Germany and Europe is less than 1%. Europe is not being flooded with Chinese products and out of fear we are trying to close the borders.


(May 27, 2024, “EU-China EV tariffs: German carmakers fear backlash”, Deutsche Welle)


3.中国可以凭借先进的新能源技术和生产发挥全球领导作用,帮助发展中国家实现绿色发展。


Huang Yiping, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China, said on Monday that China could lend to emerging economies that are in need of a transition to clean energy but lack money and technology. “Since every country needs to make the green transition, and developing countries find it particularly difficult, if we share the burden, we cannot only help them achieve the goal, but also elevate China’s global leadership and influence in green development,” Huang said at the Global Finance Forum organised by Tsinghua University in the city of Hangzhou.


(May 28, 2024, “Solve China’s ‘overcapacity problem’ by helping developing nations go green, central bank adviser urges”, South China Morning Post


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Photo: Getty Images

三、中国在新能源领域的优势,得益于其新能源市场的快速增长,这也是自由市场竞争的体现。美国等国对中国新能源汽车加征关税的举措暴露了它对国际贸易规则的践踏。所谓中国新能源“产能过剩”问题深刻反映了美西方逻辑缺陷,其赤裸裸的双标令人叹为观止。

Before announcing the imposition of additional tariffs on China, the US repeatedly spread negative information in an attempt to smear related Chinese technology and products. This is essentially a sign of guilt, trying to manipulate public opinion to cover up the fact that they are politicizing and instrumentalizing economic and trade issues. It must be reiterated that the US has no legitimacy in imposing additional tariffs on China. The World Trade Organization (WTO) expert panel ruled that the Section 301 tariffs violate WTO rules. By continuing to impose additional tariffs on China based on Section 301, the US is further disregarding WTO authority and international trade rules, compounding its mistakes. 

(May 15, 2024, “Farce of new US tariffs on China this time doesn't even match the lines”, Global Times)

The overcapacity charges also reveal Washingtons double standard on practicing the principles advocating market economy, free trade and the global division of labor, which the United States has claimed to embrace for centuries: Whenever U.S. industries are in an advantageous position, Washington champions the omnipotence of the market and free global trade; but when American companies face serious competition, the United States looks the other way, and puts up a protectionist shield.

David Fickling, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, said in a recent opinion piece that Yellen junks 200 years of economics to block China clean tech and that the attempt is a protectionist disaster that will impede the path to net zero.

(April 4, 2024, “Washingtons overcapacity charges misleading”, China Daily)
编辑:宋怡宁

审核:国佳


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