导语：

    2021年，美国的经济恢复充满着不确定性。拜登就任后不久，两党合作起草新冠疫情救助法案的努力就宣告失败。2月27日，虽遭共和党坚决反对，美国会众议院终于投票通过了一项总额高达1.9万亿美元的经济救助计划，为受新冠疫情影响的美国家庭和企业提供财政支持。接下来，该计划将交由参议院审议，而民主党在参议院仅占微弱多数。新冠肺炎疫情、制造业关键供应的短缺、民生基础设施落后等诸多问题仍然让美国的经济复苏面临重重困难。

一、共和党人团结一致反对拜登总统提出的首个重大立法提案。他们称其为“蓝色州救助计划”，并认为这个1.9万亿美元规模的经济救助计划破坏了财政预算。

 In Washington, Republicans stand united in opposition to President Biden’s first major legislative proposal, a $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan that they have labeled a bloated, budget-busting “blue state bailout.” But in rural Maine, Anthony McGill, a self-identified conservative Republican, describes the bill as something else entirely: “Most of it sounds like a good idea,” he said. While Mr. McGill doesn’t agree with all the provisions, he supports the central thrust of the bill — another round of direct stimulus payments to nearly all Americans.

(Feb 25, 2021, New York Times, Give Biden a Chance? On Covid Aid, Some Trump Voters Just Might)

Republicans have criticized the legislation as a “liberal wishlist giveaway” that fails to dedicate enough money to reopening schools that have been partially operating with “virtual” learning during the pandemic. The House minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, complained it was “too costly, too corrupt”. While Republicans for months have blocked a new round of aid to state and local governments, McCarthy said he was open to his home state of California getting some of the bill’s $350bn in funding, despite a one-time $15bn budget surplus. Efforts to craft a bipartisan coronavirus aid bill fizzled early on, shortly after Biden was sworn in as president on 20 January, following a series of bipartisan bills enacted in 2020 that totaled around $4tn.

(Feb 26, 2021, The Guardian, House approves $1.9tn Covid aid bill despite minimum wage setback)

（图片来源：New York Times)

二、参议院无党派议员伊丽莎白·麦克多诺裁定，拜登提议的每小时15美元的最低工资增长不符合预算调节标准，因而不能被纳入这项1.9万亿美元的经济救助计划中。拜登称“对这个结果感到失望”，但“尊重国会议员的决定和参议院的程序”。

While the proposal faced universal opposition by Republican senators and skepticism from some Democrats, Senator Bernie Sanders and others were confident that it could be pushed through with a simple majority in the Senate, where the Democrats hold a slim majority. In order to achieve this, the proposal would have to be passed by “budget reconciliation” – a mechanism that allows legislation to bypass the 60% vote bills need to get through the Senate. Late on Thursday, MacDonough ruled that the wage increase did not meet the standards for budget reconciliation.The parliamentarian acts as an impartial judge and has only been removed from office once. MacDonough is well respected by many members of both parties, and the Biden administration seems unlikely to push for her removal.

(Feb 26, 2021, The Guardian, Ilhan Omar leads calls to fire Senate official who scuppered $15 wage rise)

Nonpartisan Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough determined lawmakers could not include the policy under budget reconciliation, CNBC confirmed. She and her staff heard arguments from Democrats and Republicans about whether the proposal met strict standards for deficit effects needed to include it in the process. Reconciliation allows the Senate to pass bills with a simple majority — in this case with no Republicans who are wary of another massive rescue package. However, Democrats faced challenges in passing the pay hike regardless of whether the chamber’s rules allowed it in the legislation.

(Feb 25, 2021, CNBC, $15 minimum wage not allowed in Biden’s Covid relief bill, Senate official says)

（图片来源：Economist)

三、半导体通常被称为芯片，它对从手机、电脑到冰箱等各种日常产品的运行至关重要，也是操控武器系统的大脑。半导体短缺始于去年新冠病毒大流行。现在，半导体短缺正在困扰美国的汽车制造商和其他产业的制造商，并导致它们生产削减。

President Biden will meet Wednesday with a bipartisan group of lawmakers to confront growing concern about a global shortage of semiconductors that is hobbling automakers and other manufacturers and has led to production cutbacks. News of the meeting, confirmed by people familiar with the matter, came as Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) called for Congress to appropriate funds it previously had authorized for domestic semiconductor manufacturing, calling the current lack of production capacity “a dangerous weak spot in our economy and in our national security.”

 Commonly known as chips, semiconductors are critical to the functioning of a wide range of everyday products, from cellphones to computers to state-of-the-art refrigerators. They are also the brains that operate an array of weapons systems. The chip shortage began after the coronavirus pandemic hit last year. As global demand for automobiles fell, car companies cut production and their purchases of semiconductors needed to build cars. At the same time, demand for semiconductors soared from companies making computers and other equipment that allowed employees to work from home, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. Then when auto production recovered, car companies faced a shortage of semiconductor supplies.

 （Feb23, 2021, Washington Post, Growing computer-chip shortage alarms Biden and Congress）

四、受冬季风暴影响，美国得克萨斯州电网设施崩溃成为能源问题的典型代表。虽无法确定全国范围内的极端天气是否受气候变化的影响，但美国面临着既要解决基础能源供应又要将气候问题付诸实践的困境。

Texas prides itself on being different. Yet it is in the grip of a winter storm that typifies the Snowmageddon-size problems facing energy in America. Although nobody can be sure if this particular freeze is a sign of climate change, the growing frequency of extreme weather across the country is. Texan infrastructure has buckled. The problem is not, as some argue, that Texas has too many renewables. Gas-fired plants and a nuclear reactor were hit, as well as wind turbines. Worse, Texas had too little capacity and its poorly connected grid was unable to import power from elsewhere. Texas shows that America needs both a cleaner grid and a more reliable one.

Failure to act would bring big risks. For a start, it would make America less competitive in the new clean-energy economy. China is the dominant producer of solar panels and batteries; it has also invested in foreign mines to secure minerals needed for them. Europe has its own “green deal” to boost its clean-energy industries. It plans to tax imports from countries that do not pledge to lower their emissions. Unfortunately, America brings little credibility to action on climate. Mr Trump took pleasure in subverting it, but his country’s poor record precedes him. George W. Bush declined to implement the Kyoto protocol. Congress has not considered serious climate legislation since 2009. Today must be different. There will never be a better chance for Mr Biden to show real ambition. If the blackouts in Texas are any guide, it would not just be the world that would thank him, but Americans, too.

（Feb 20, 2021, Economist, How America can rid itself of both carbon and blackouts）

（图片来源：Economist)

五、全球经济的恢复不仅取决于病毒的传播程度和疫苗的推出，还在于这种流行病减缓了经济活动，而政府的大规模紧急干预掩盖了它造成的影响的全貌，无法知道它究竟造成了多大的持续性损害。

Never in recent memory has so much uncertainty hung over global growth. That is not just because the prospects for the world economy in 2021 depend on how much the virus spreads and the roll-out of a vaccine. It is also because it is unknown just how much lasting damage the pandemic has done as it has slowed economic activity, shut down some firms and left workers jobless. Its full impact has been obscured by massive emergency government intervention to bail out companies and support workers. Only when that support is withdrawn will the veil be lifted. Just as epidemiologists have had to learn about the virus as it advances, economists must judge its economic toll on the fly.

(Nov16, 2020, Economist, the economic recovery needs more help-No one knows how much lasting damage has been done)