导语
1月11日，上海外国语大学中英人文交流中心主任，清华大学战略与安全研究中心中国论坛特约专家高健接受俄罗斯塔斯社专访，就美国有意夺取格陵兰岛与巴拿马运河控制权及特朗普二次执政的根本目标和主导逻辑进行分析。高健认为，试图夺取格陵兰岛与巴拿马运河两个关键地理节点是美国全球霸权相对弱化的背景下，美国战略收缩的集中体现，而这种“自救”行为极有可能将以威胁与否定既定国际秩序为代价。
中国论坛特此首发文章中英文版，以飨读者。
当我第一次听到这一讯息的时候，我感觉我们似乎回到了100年前的旧殖民地时期。在那个时代，西方列强瓜分世界，被殖民地国家主权受到严重侵犯，缺乏最基本的发展权利。难道我们要回到100年前的世界吗？
意大利总理梅洛尼说，特朗普并非真的打算动用军事力量夺取格陵兰岛或巴拿马运河的控制权。她觉得特朗普的言论是对其他全球参与者发出的警告，让它们不要插手这些具有重要战略意义的国际领域，并排除了美国将在未来几年试图使用武力吞并其感兴趣领土的可能性。我以为，如果这种逻辑具有合理性，那么霸权主义与强权政治将成为国际社会的主流话语。而且，我对梅洛尼排除“美国试图使用武力吞并感兴趣领土的可能性”的结论深表怀疑。
美国试图夺取格陵兰岛与巴拿马运河具有极为明显的现实利益诉求。格陵兰岛土地资源丰富，对于未来工业发展最为重要的 34 种关键原材料中有25 种矿产资源可以在格陵兰岛找到，其稀土矿产资源尤其丰富。就目前而言，美国、中国、日本是巴拿马运河的三大客户。始发地或目的地为美国的货物，占巴拿马运河2024财年总通行货物量的74.7%。控制巴拿马运河，将为特朗普的贸易保护主义提供不可多得的筹码。
我们需要深刻理解特朗普第二次执政的根本目标与主导逻辑。客观而言，要遏制美国逐步衰落的发展趋势，缓解美国国内日益激化的社会矛盾，未来的特朗普政府必须采用“非常规手段”。本次特朗普再次入主白宫，并且获得议会与最高法院的主导权，他绝不甘心再次受制于美国建制派与深层政府的掣肘。国际社会，特别是美国的盟友国家，对未来美国对外政策的重大转向要有清醒的认知。美国的“自救”行为，也许是以否定自第二次世界大战以来逐步形成的国际秩序为根本代价的。
When I first heard about this message, I felt as if we were back in the old colonial period 100 years ago. At that time, the Western powers carved up the world, the sovereignty of the colonial countries was seriously violated, and they lacked the most basic right to development. Are we going back to the world 100 years ago?
Italian Prime Minister Meloni said Trump did not really intend to use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal. She felt that Trump's remarks were a warning to other global players not to meddle in these strategically important international areas. She ruled out the possibility that the United States would try to use force to annex its territory of interest in the coming years.
I think that if this logic is reasonable, then hegemonism and power politics will become the mainstream discourse of the international community. Moreover, I have deep doubts about Meloni's conclusion that she excludes "the possibility of an attempt by the United States to annex the territory of interest by force."
The United States' attempt to seize Greenland and the Panama Canal has very obvious practical interests. Greenland is rich in land resources, with 25 of the 34 key raw materials that are most important for future industrial development being found in Greenland, especially rare earth minerals. For now, the United States, China, and Japan are the three largest customers of the Panama Canal. Cargo originating from or destined for the U.S. accounted for 74.7% of the Panama Canal's total cargo traffic in fiscal year 2024. Taking control of the Panama Canal would provide a rare bargaining chip for Trump's protectionism in trade.
We need to deeply understand the fundamental goals and guiding logic of Trump's second term. Objectively speaking, in order to curb the gradual decline of the United States and alleviate the increasingly intensifying social contradictions in the United States, the future Trump administration must adopt "unconventional means". This time, Trump is once again in the White House, and has won the leadership of Congress and the Supreme Court, and he is not willing to be constrained by the American establishment and the deep state again. The international community, especially the allies of the United States, should have a sober understanding of the major shift in US foreign policy in the future. The United States' "self-help" behavior may be based on the overt negation of the international order that has gradually taken shape since World War II.
原文链接：https://tass.ru/ekonomika/22855285
