On January 18-20, 2019, the National Institute for Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Center for International Strategy and Security of Tsinghua University (CISS) jointly held the international forum themed on “Asia-Pacific Security: Risk and Control” in Beijing, bringing together more than 40 renowned scholars at home and abroad. The forum focuses on three topics: Asia-Pacific security situation and hot-button issues, international relations theories and historical implications, and paths and suggestions for security risk control. The major arguments laid out at the forum are as follows:
Geopolitical risks in the Asia-Pacific region are mounting. In recent years, continued improvements have been made in China’s relations with Japan and Southeast Asian countries, the situation of the East and South China seas is generally stable and improving, and traditional disputes over sovereignty and maritime rights have been put under proper control. However, the geostrategic competition initiated by the US has been increasingly fierce. The US has paid more attention to the “competitive challenge” and “security threat” posed by countries like China, Russia and even North Korea. The US launched the Indo-Pacific Strategy, as an attempt to contain a China with growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region, and kept strengthening its relations with countries such as India, Japan, Australia and Vietnam, which will increase the risks in the geopolitical landscape of the region.
The China-US security relations are overall controllable. Scholars at the forum maintained that where China-US relations are going will largely determine the future of security situations in the Asia-Pacific region, and that currently there are both structural conflicts and cooperation between the two countries. The division between China and the US shows signs of expansion from economy and trade to the other security-related areas. Yet at the same time, the two powers still need to cooperate on many fields, including economy, climate change, governance of non-traditional transnational issues and major hot-spot issues like North Korea and nuclear security. China and the US will not end up with a cold war like that between the US and the Soviet Union, but the bilateral relations have reached a critical crossroad. The protraction of China-US strategic competition will constitute a confrontational security framework in the Asia-Pacific region, thus forcing other countries to take sides. If the China-US relations keep deteriorating, there is a possibility that they fall into the Thucydides trap.
Uncertainties still persist in the South China Sea issue, the Taiwan Strait question and the North Korean nuclear issue. The lack of mutual trust between major countries is more likely to cause strategic miscalculation and damage peaceful cooperation in the region. If the “trust deficit” continues, it will damage interests of all parties and hinder their ability to achieve their goals. The South China Sea issue is particularly pressing. The year 2018 saw frequent occurrence of China-US confrontations. Any conflict and collision is likely to trigger a sharp deterioration of China-US relations. In terms of the Taiwan Strait question, the Democratic Progressive Party may try to promote Taiwan independence during its remaining time in office and thus touch the red line in the relations with the mainland. The US is playing the Taiwan card for explicit purposes, so we cannot rule out the possibility that the relations across the Taiwan Strait may be further complicated. With regard to the North Korean nuclear issue, most scholars hold that the overall situation is sound, but there are still considerable uncertainties in North Korea. The biggest variable is the US, that is, whether Washington will be determined to address security concerns about North Korea.
Greater attention has been paid to the development of armed forces and military power of China. In this respect, the other countries often stretch their imagination to infer China’s intentions, as they hold that the key thing is that China itself cannot clarify its intentions or its clarification is not specific enough. For example, China has clearly explained earlier that the base in Djibouti aims to provide logistical supply for its escort taskforces in the Gulf of Aden, which represents outcomes of the friendly cooperation between China and Djibouti, and that port cooperation along the BRI route is usually a commercial act. That being said, there are still persisting and mounting improper speculations among the other countries.
The artificial intelligence (AI) technology is increasing the possibility of global risks and major-country competition. New technologies may become a main battleground in the future China-US competition, and the AI technology and data resources are two key issues which urgently need to be controlled worldwide. Therefore, concerted efforts are called for to prevent any warfare caused by modern technologies like AI and automatic weapons in the 21st century. At present, human beings are simply concerned about and keen on developing new technologies but hardly reflect and research on relevant ethics, thus failing to establish a set of common rules for the time being. As technologically superior countries have more divisions and confrontations with each other, risks in this regard will rise.
Appendix: List of attendees
Chinese scholars:
Chen Qi
Professor of Department of International Relations, Tsinghua University
Chen Xiaogong
Former Deputy Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Leading Group of the CPC Central Committee, former Deputy Commander of Chinese Air Force
Da Wei
Assistant President of the University of International Relations
Fan Jishe
Dean of the Department of Strategic Studies under the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Feng Yujun
Vice Dean of the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University
Fu Ying
Director of the Center for International Strategy and Security, Tsinghua University
Hu Bo
Director General of the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies, Peking University
Li Bin
Professor of Department of International Relations, Tsinghua University
Su Ge
Co-chair of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, Chair of the China National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation and former President of the China Institute of International Studies
Wang Fan
Vice President of the Chine Foreign Affairs University
Wang Jisi
President of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Peking University
Wang Linggui
Executive Vice Chairman of Board of Directors, Secretary General and Research Fellow of the National Institute for Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Wang Shuai
Research Fellow of the National Institute for Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Wu Dahui
Professor of Department of International Relations, Tsinghua University
Xu Hui
Commandant of the International College of Defense Studies, National Defense University of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army
Yao Yunzhu
Senior Advisor to the China Association of Military Science and retired Major General of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army
Yuan Peng
President of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations
Zhang Baijia
Former Deputy Director of the Party History Research Center of the CPC Central Committee
Zhao Minghao
Research Fellow of the China Center for Contemporary World Studies, International Department of the CPC Central Committee
Zhou Bo
Director General of the Center for Security Cooperation at the Office for International Military Cooperation in the Chinese Ministry of National Defense
Zhou Qiangwu
Director General of the International Economics and Finance Institute of the Ministry of Finance
Zhu Feng
Executive Director of the Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, Nanjing University
Foreign scholars:
Bruno Maçães
Former Europe Minister of Portugal and Senior Advisor to UK-based business consultancy Flint Global
Clifford A. Kupchan
Chair of Eurasia Group
David Rank
Senior Advisor to the Cohen Group
Dennis Wilder
Professor of Georgetown University
Douglas Paal
Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Elizabeth Economy
Senior Fellow and Director for Asia studies at the US Council on Foreign Relations
Eric Richardson
Senior Advisor to the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue
Grant Kettering
Chairman of KC Group and heir of a founding shareholder of General Motors
Joseph DeTrani
Former Director of the National Counter Proliferation Center and Senior Advisor to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Josette Sheeran
President of Asia Society
Karl W. Eikenberry
Senior Fellow of Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and former US Ambassador to Afghanistan
Richard Sakwa
Professor of Russian and European politics at the University of Kent
Richard Weitz
Research Fellow of Hudson Institute
Sergey Karaganov
Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs of the National Research University–Higher School of Economics
Steve Howard
Secretary General of the Australia-based Global Foundation
Sun Yun
Senior Associate with the East Asia Program at the Stimson Center
Thomas Fingar
Professor of Stanford University and former Chairman of the US National Intelligence Council