中国论坛《参考观点》(第42期)|COP 28大会亮点纷呈,应气变中国展大国担当

2024-01-07
导语
2023年,全球极端天气事件频发,气候变化给自然环境和人类经济社会发展带来了诸多影响,寻求共同应对气候变化之道愈发迫切。11月30日至12月13日,COP 28在阿联酋迪拜举行,这是有史以来参会规模最大的一次气候变化大会。来自近200个缔约方的谈判代表齐聚迪拜,经过为期两周的谈判,就《巴黎协定》首次全球盘点、减缓、适应等多项议题达成“阿联酋共识”。本次大会向国际社会发出了聚焦行动、加强合作的积极信号,具有重大里程碑式意义。然而当前气候变化形势十分严峻,仍面临许多未来挑战,需要各国积极推进,公正转型。作为全球生态文明建设的重要参与者,中国始终是气候治理的“行动派”,不仅积极推动本国的绿色低碳发展,也为全球应对气候变化作出重要贡献。


一、“阿联酋共识”:各国首次承诺减少所有化石燃料使用

根据“阿联酋共识”,各国达成了首次承诺减少所有化石燃料使用的历史性协议,以迅速、公平和公正的方式在能源系统中转型脱离化石燃料,并在关键十年加速行动,以在2050年实现净零排放。关于化石能源的使用问题是此次COP 28最主要的谈判焦点,各国代表就“逐步减少”或“逐步淘汰”化石燃料展开激烈谈判,也正是因为未能就化石燃料的未来达成协议,使得大会被迫“延期”。

After an extra day of intense negotiations, the 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28) finally clinched a landmark climate deal - UAE Consensus - on December 13. As a response to the first Global Stocktake of how countries can accelerate action to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the UAE Consensus took shape following weeks of tough talks and concessions.

Nations at COP28 approved a roadmap for “transitioning away from fossil fuels” - the first for a UN climate conference. However, the UAE Consensus stopped short of a long-demanded call for a “phase-out” of oil, coal, and gas. “While we didn’t fully turn the page on the fossil fuel here in Dubai, this is the beginning of the end,” said UN climate chief Simon Stiell.

(December 15, 2023. “COP28: Thorns and Victories.” CGTN)

Representatives from nearly 200 countries agreed at the COP28 climate summit on Wednesday to begin reducing global consumption of fossil fuels to avert the worst of climate change, signaling the eventual end of the oil age. The deal struck in Dubai after two weeks of hard-fought negotiations was meant to send a powerful message to investors and policymakers that the world is united in its desire to break with fossil fuels, something scientists say is the last best hope to stave off climate catastrophe.

(December 13, 2023. “Nations strike deal at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels.” Reuters)

二、总结、推进与展望:各国合力推进多边主义气候治理

本次大会完成了《巴黎协定》生效以来第一次全球盘点,总结了成绩和缺口,进一步巩固了全球不可逆转的绿色低碳转型趋势,有助于各国加速应对气候变化的行动,开启了全球气候治理进程的新篇章。本次大会上,各方还就启动损失和损害基金等重要议题达成一致,在全球适应目标框架、公正转型路径工作方案等方面实现突破。大会取得的成果展现了当前国际社会共同应对气候变化的努力,总体上反映了各方在应对气候变化方面愿展现更多灵活性和建设性,体现了对多边主义的维护。

A key component of the UAE Consensus is the decision on the GST to assess progress since Paris and put forward a plan to close implementation gaps to 2030. In a landmark agreement to bring a sectoral approach to the COP process, it calls on Parties to transition away from fossil fuels and to triple renewables and double energy efficiency globally by 2030. The decision also recognises the need to peak global emissions by 2025, taking into account different national starting points, and encourages countries to submit economy-wide Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It also includes recognition of the crucial need to significantly scale up adaptation finance beyond doubling to meet urgent and evolving needs, and a clear call for countries to deliver National Adaptation Plans by 2025 and implement them by 2030. Finally, recognising the crucial role finance has to play in delivering ambition, the GST decision builds momentum behind a new global climate finance architecture in support of the post-2025 climate goal to be delivered at COP29.

(December 13, 2023. “The UAE Consensus Negotiation Outcome.” UNFCCC)

The consensus has put forward a slew of measures to close the gaps to 2030, regarding mitigation, adaptation, finance, and fossil fuels, among others, and has laid the ground for a swift, just, and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emission cuts and scaled-up finance.The COP28 presidency has been promoting environmental multilateralism and urging the unity of all parties in this difficult time.

(December 15, 2023. “UAE Consensus on global stocktake to guide future climate efforts.” Xinhua)

三、 中国高度重视应对气候变化,积极参与全球气候治理

应对气候变化问题必须雄心与务实兼备,关键在于兑现作出的承诺。在全球应对气候变化的努力中,中国始终秉持人类命运共同体理念,以天下情怀和大国担当积极参与应对气候变化全球治理。中国高度重视本次大会,为大会的成功注入了强大推动力。外媒普遍认为,中国如期实现碳达峰前景乐观,引领全球可再生能源发展,为实现全球气候治理目标作出重要贡献。

The 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be a milestone where the world takes stock of its progress on the Paris Agreement, and the outcome will help pool global efforts against climate change.With total installed capacity of renewable energies reaching 1,213 gigawatts in 2022, China has become a global leader in utilizing green and low-carbon energy sources. Over the years, China has been promoting cooperation on climate change under the Belt and Road Initiative framework, providing support for other developing countries to better their abilities in dealing with climate change.

(November 30, 2023. “What has China done to address global climate challenges.” Xinhua)

By stepping up efforts to accelerate its own green and low-carbon transition, China has brought the cost of wind power generation down by 80 percent, and photovoltaic power generation by 90 percent, laying a solid foundation for the large-scale deployment of renewable energy around the world.

(December 15, 2023. “UAE Consensus on global stocktake to guide future climate efforts.” Xinhua)

When the negotiations at the just-concluded COP28 climate summit got stuck, China and the United States worked together, provided “some joint proposals to unlock the deadlock in the negotiations, and facilitated the success of the COP”, Xie Zhenhua, China’s special envoy for climate change, said on Wednesday. The two countries also agreed that “following the requirements of the Paris Agreement, and also the suggestions made in the outcome for the first Global Stocktake, China and the US will respectively reevaluate our respective long-term strategies for climate actions”, he said, adding that based on it they will update the Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, in order to better implement the Paris Agreement. Under the principle of upholding multilateralism and promoting the implementation of the Paris Agreement, they had "candid, frank, in-depth and friendly exchanges”. Finally, they adopted the China-US Joint Sunnylands Statement for addressing the climate crisis, noted Xie.

(December 15, 2023. “Sino-US cooperation ends COP28 deadlock”, China Daily)

四、 未来挑战:援助资金仍严重不足,气候正义需南北合力

尽管COP 28结束时达成了协议与共识,但还不足以让世界免受气候变化的有害影响。对于那些关注气候正义的人来说,许多协议承诺增加对弱势国家的财政援助,其中包括一项关于损失和损害基金运作的协议,认捐额高达7.92亿美元。然而这还不到那些面临气候相关危害最严峻国家所需资金的1%。

第一份全球评估协议呼吁各国放弃化石燃料,并在最终协议中得到了逐步减少化石燃料支持者的认可。但协议文本含糊不清,没有时间限制,化石燃料的生产和使用可以继续按部就班地进行。一些专家对COP28成果的言辞与现实之间的差距感到失望。

COP28 ended with a number of agreements that offered something for every group represented, but not enough for the world to avoid the harmful impacts of climate change. For those concerned about climate justice, there were many pledges to increase financial assistance to vulnerable countries, including an agreement to operationalize the Loss and Damage Fund with pledges of up to $792 million. Though this is less than 1 percent of what is needed to support those facing the greatest climate-related harms, there was hope that opening the bank account means that it will receive adequate funds eventually. But the historic record on fund flows does not give much reason for optimism.

The call for transitioning away from fossil fuels in the first Global Stocktake agreement was approved by proponents of phasing down fossil fuels in the final agreement. But to the comfort of oil and gas producers and consumers, which includes most of the world, the text of the agreement is vague and not time-bound, and fossil fuel production and use can continue on a business-as-usual path. Some experts were disappointed over the gap between the rhetoric and reality of COP28 outcomes. Some blame it on the COP28 presidency residing with a large oil exporter, but the COP28 outcomes are no different from COP agreements from Kyoto in 1997 to Glasgow in 2021, where pledges were made if only to be broken.

(December 15, 2023. “COP28: Significant Progress but Disappointing Ambition.” Council on Foreign Relations)

“COP 28 outcomes represent significant wins overshadowed by disappointments. While we celebrate the historic deal on financing for loss & damage and the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels—adopted for the first time—we can’t ignore the heartbreaking letdowns on adaptation and the dangerous loopholes in mitigation. The decisions adopted today in Dubai will impact the most vulnerable communities on earth, leaving them underprepared, underfinanced, and exposed to the consequences of global warming breaching the 1.5°C threshold.”

(December 13, 2023. “The Most Significant Decisions Since the Paris Agreement - IISD’s Experts on COP 28 Outcome.” International Institute for Sustainable Development)

编辑:周杼樾

审核:张立荣  钱嘉童


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