当前，世界经济下行压力增大，复苏动力不足。面对国际风险挑战和国内多重因素交织叠加影响，中国经济稳中有进，整体向好，展现出强大发展韧性。中国最新发布的系列经济数据和经济金融政策向世界释放了积极信号。国际货币基金组织等多家国际金融机构接续对中国经济增速做出积极预测。同时，随着第六届进博会的顺利召开和自贸试验区的快速发展，中国再次向世界展现出推进高水平对外开放的信心和决心和以中国新发展为世界提供新机遇的大国担当。一、前三季度国民经济持续恢复向好，高质量发展稳步推进1. 10月18日，国家统计局发布2023年前三季度国民经济运行情况。初步核算，前三季度国内生产总值（GDP）913,027亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.2%。分季度看，一季度GDP同比增长4.5%，二季度增长6.3%，三季度增长4.9%。从环比看，三季度GDP增长1.3%。整体而言，前三季度，中国国民经济顶住下行压力，就业形势、物价运行、投资动力等多项指标出现积极变化，总体呈现持续恢复向好态势。In the first three quarters, faced with grave and complex international environment and challenging tasks in promoting reform, development and stability at home, all regions and departments accelerated efforts to foster a new development pattern, took solid steps to promote high-quality development, implemented macroeconomic policy regulation in a precise and robust way, and made efforts to expand domestic demand, boost confidence, and fend off risks. As a result, the national economy sustained the momentum of recovery and improvement with positive factors amassing, as production and supply increased steadily, market demands continued to expand, employment and prices generally improved, and quality of development enhanced steadily.According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters reached 91,302.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2 percent at constant price. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 5,637.4 billion yuan, up by 4.0 percent year on year; that of the secondary industry was 35,365.9 billion yuan, up by 4.4 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 50,299.3 billion yuan, up by 6.0 percent. By quarter, the GDP for the first quarter increased by 4.5 percent year on year, for the second quarter 6.3 percent, and for the third quarter 4.9 percent. The quarter-on-quarter GDP for the third quarter increased by 1.3 percent.
(October 18, 2023. “National Economy Sustained the Momentum of Recovery and Improvement with Solid Progress in High-quality Development in the First Three Quarters” National Bureau of Statistics of China)
2. 日前，财政部部长蓝佛安在出席第30届亚太经合组织（APEC）财长会时表示，今年，尤其是三季度以来，中国经济持续回升向好，内生动力不断增强，预计四季度中国经济将保持回升向好态势。中国仍是世界经济稳定增长的重要引擎。Despite facing a more complicated external environment and mounting uncertainties, China will maintain its role as a key engine of regional and global growth, given its ultra-large domestic market, a complete industrial system and abundant human resources, experts said.Finance Minister Lan Fo’an said China’s economy has gained a firm footing so far this year, especially since the third quarter, with positive factors adding up and endogenous momentum enhanced. He estimated that China’s economy will maintain a positive trend in the fourth quarter, and the country will remain a crucial engine of stable growth of global economy.Lan made the remarks during the 30th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Finance Ministers’Meeting, held on Sunday and Monday in San Francisco.(November 15, 2023. “Q4 GDP seen putting China in driver’s seat” China Daily)3. 国际货币基金组织、德意志银行等金融组织机构上调对今年中国经济的增长预期，高盛、瑞银等相继发布对2024中国经济展望报告，预测2024年中国经济有望持续回升向好。China’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 5.4 percent in 2023, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) statement said on Tuesday.China only needs GDP growth of 4.4 percent year on year in the fourth quarter to meet its annual growth target of around 5 percent.( November 7, 2023. “China’s GDP to grow by 5.4 percent in 2023: IMF” Xinhua)“Chinese assets” win global recognition as a series of prominent international financial institutions are bullish on China’s economic outlook in 2024.
These institutions include Goldman Sachs and UBS who are optimistic of China’s economic growth next year and are willing to increase their holdings of A shares.
China’s real GDP growth is expected to reach 4.8 percent in 2024 by Goldman Sachs, 0.2 percentage points higher than the 4.6 percent projection by IMF on Nov 7.
The reasons for the confidence in Chinese economy lie in stable consumption; increased government fiscal support; and higher proportion of investments in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing, said Goldman Sachs’ chief China economist Shan Hui.
（November 14, 2023. “‘Chinese assets’ win global recognition” China Daily）Xiong Yi, Deutsche Bank Group’s Chief China Economist, released a research report on China’s macroeconomic landscape, saying that the effects of counter-cyclical adjustment are becoming increasingly evident, and the Chinese economy is gradually stabilizing. He predicts that the economy will gradually rebound in the fourth quarter of this year, with an expected growth rate of 5%. The GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2023 is 5.1%.
Xiong Yi said that since mid-August, following China’s strengthened counter-cyclical adjustments and policy reserves, a series of encouraging signals have gradually emerged. Current data suggests that the Chinese economy is gradually stabilizing and recovering.
(October 12, 2023. “The Paper | Positive Outlook for the Fourth Quarter! Multiple Foreign Institutions Raise China’s Economic Forecast and Advocate Overweighting Chinese Stocks” Shanghai Stock Exchange)
二、宏观政策“组合拳”精准有力，新发展格局加速构建1. 民营经济贡献了50%以上的税收、60%以上的GDP、80%以上的城镇就业，是国民经济的重要基础，也是经济高质量发展的重要基础。今年7月份，《中共中央国务院关于促进民营经济发展壮大的意见》发布，从持续优化民营经济发展环境、加大对民营经济政策支持力度、强化民营经济发展法治保障、着力推动民营经济实现高质量发展等八个方面提出了31条举措。As a major taxpayer, job provider and GDP growth contributor to the economy, the importance of China’s private sector has long been highlighted by policymakers. However, affected by the external environment, China’s 50 million plus private businesses have come under pressure since the start of this year, fueling concerns in a market that is still recovering.It is urgent to improve the system and mechanism to promote the development and growth of the private economy in view of the new situation, boost the confidence of the private economy, and further stimulate the vitality of the private economy, the NDRC said.This urgent need has given rise to the private economy development bureau, the first of its kind in China devoted to the private sector. The establishment of the bureau, as a special working organization to promote the development and growth of the private sector, provides a strong guarantee for promoting its high-quality development.(November 14, 2023. “Heavyweight policy boost for China’s private economy” Xinhua)China on Wednesday issued a guideline on boosting the growth of the private economy, highlighting that it will ensure that enterprises of different ownership will operate in an arena of fair competition and be protected by the laws equally, in a bid to promote high-quality development of the private economy, further boost market confidence and consolidate the foundation for economic recovery.The 31 measures included in the guidelinehighlight that they will insist on the policy of “two unswervingly,” namely unswervingly consolidating and developing the public sector and unswervingly encouraging, supporting and guiding the development of the non-public sector. They will accelerate the creation of a first-class business environment that is market-oriented, ruled by law and internationalized, and optimize the environment for the development of the private economy.(July 19, 2023. “China issues guideline to spur growth of private economy with concrete measures” Global Times)2. 尽管国民经济主要指标持续改善，但外部不稳定不确定因素依然较多，国内需求仍显不足，国家持续出台相关政策，巩固经济回升向好基础。以备受关注的房地产市场为例，8月下旬以来，一系列房地产政策出台节奏加快，规格、力度明显提升，正在起到提振市场信心的作用。China’s housing market has recently seen a series of forceful policy changes, which analysts believe will lead to a gradual rebound in the sector in the coming months, driven by the recovery in larger cities.These policy changes include reducing the down payment ratio, cutting existing mortgage interest rates, and relaxing requirements for first-home buyers.The reduction in down payment ratio will help alleviate the financial burden on residents and create a more favorable environment for property market stabilization and recovery, Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research at JLL Greater China, told CGTN.
(September 2, 2023. “Analysts: China’s property sector warms up following eased mortgage policies” CGTN)
Data showed that the positive effects of supportive measures like recognizing households with mortgage records rather than local property ownership as first-time homebuyers, favorable down payments and lower mortgage rates have kicked in to stabilize the property sector, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-rural Development, said in an interview with Xinhua.The overall transaction volume of new and second-hand homes in China achieved a year-on-year positive growth from January to October, despite the sales of new housing has declined during the same period. To build a new model for real estate development, we must adhere to the positioning that “houses are for living in, not for speculation” and equally to meet the reasonable financing needs of different types of real estate enterprises, promoting a virtuous cycle between finance and real estate, Ni emphasized.(November 11, 2023. “Overall sales of China’s real estate industry in first 10 months see positive growth as supportive measures kick in: official” Global Times)三、 第六届中国国际进口博览会（CIIE）在沪召开，高水平开放机遇共享1. 11月5日-10日，第六届中国国际进口博览会在上海召开，来自154个国家、地区和国际组织的来宾齐聚“四叶草”，128个国家和地区的3486家企业参加企业展，集中展示了442项代表性首发新产品、新技术、新服务。本届进博会按年计意向成交创历届新高，金额达784.1亿美元、比上届增长6.7%。The sixth China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai concluded on Friday, achieving a significant milestone with $78.41 billion in tentative trade agreements, a 6.7 percent increase over last year’s expo.Representatives across 154 countries, regions, and international organizations participated in the annual trade fair, showcasing a diverse array of 442 new products, technologies, and services.The Business Exhibition zone buzzed with activity, hosting a record-breaking attendance of 289 Fortune 500 companies and industry leaders. Meanwhile, the Innovation Incubation zone, a focal point of creativity, attracted over 300 projects from 39 countries, surpassing the total of the previous two editions put together.
Following the successful wrap-up of the sixth CIIE, momentum is already building for its seventh edition. Preparations are in full swing, with four signing ceremonies already conducted and nearly 200 companies committed to participating, making up an exhibition area that would exceed 100,000 square meters.
(November 10, 2023.“CIIE makes history with whopping $78.41 billion deals” CGTN)
2. 11月5日，国家主席习近平向第六届中国国际进口博览会致信。他强调，中国将始终是世界发展的重要机遇，将坚定推进高水平开放，持续推动经济全球化朝着更加开放、包容、普惠、平衡、共赢的方向发展。In 2018, China made a resounding global declaration with the inauguration of the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, the world’s first national-level import expo. Six years on, the CIIE continues to expand its global influence, becoming a catalyst for win-win cooperation worldwide and offering international public goods and services that benefit the world.Six years on, the CIIE continues to serve as a beacon of opportunity and hope for entrepreneurs, whether they represent large corporations or small businesses. As the CIIE thrives, it not only underscores the vast opportunities presented by the Chinese market to foreign businesses, but also actively empowers them to become integral contributors to the ever-evolving success story of this vibrant and dynamic economy.The CIIE remains a testament to China’s unwavering commitment to global trade and economic cooperation, solidifying its position as a global leader in facilitating international partnerships and opening new horizons for businesses worldwide.(November 9, 2023. “6 years on: CIIE continues to bring opportunities for foreign businesses” People’s Daily)1. 自2013年中国首个自贸试验区——中国（上海）自由贸易试验区揭牌运行以来，自贸试验区实现了从“1”到“21”的扩容，成为中国对外开放的新高地、全面深化改革的“排头兵”和高质量发展的增长极。自贸试验区的建设，印证着中国坚定不移推进高水平开放、推动高质量发展的决心和与世界共享发展机遇的胸怀。Since the establishment of the first pilot Free Trade Zone (FTZ) in Shanghai in 2013, China has so far boasted 21 FTZs and the Hainan Free Trade Port.From the coastal areas to the central inland regions and border provinces, the FTZs have become pacesetters for the country’s high-standard reform and opening-up.Over the past decade, China’s FTZs have played a crucial role in attracting foreign investment and stabilizing foreign trade.In 2022, the 21 FTZs saw exports and imports rise 14.5 percent year on year to 7.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 17.8 percent of the country’s total. The utilized foreign investment in FTZs exceeded 220 billion yuan, making up 18.1 percent of the total.
The 21 FTZs continued to see a steady increase in foreign investment in the first half of 2023. “Covering less than four thousandths of the country's land area, the FTZs have attracted 18.4 percent of foreign investment in China in the first half,” said Yang Tao, an official with the Ministry of Commerce.
(August 2, 2023. “A decade on, China's free trade zones become pacesetters for further reform and opening-up” Xinhua)
2. 《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）将对我国构建新发展格局产生重要推动作用。China has been a strong advocate of free trade, and also the first non-ASEAN participating country to complete the ratification process of RECP. The trade deal came into force in the Philippines on June 2, meaning the world's largest free trade pact is now in effect for all its 15 members.
The RCEP agreement has entered into force, paving the way for lower import taxes for goods from all RCEP-participating countries. It’s not the end. It’s just the beginning. Following the full implementation of the RCEP, Asia-Pacific countries need continuous impetus for further integration. Media reports said discussion topics at the high-level forum will include economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region, facilitation of international shipping and trade, integration of industrial chains within the region, and new opportunities for digital economy and green economy. It has proved that economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region will not stop amid the de-globalization and decoupling headwinds, and will go further in nearly every area. Effort in the West to “de-risk” their economies is a false proposition. What Asia-Pacific economies need is cooperation, not de-risking.
(June 27, 2023. “RCEP to boost economic integration, further progress needed amid US de-risking” Global Times)