【中国论坛热词解码】(第80期)2023中国经济发展展望

2022-12-30
导语
12月15日至16日,中央经济工作会议在北京举行,会议分析了当前经济形势,并对2023年经济工作做出部署。2023年经济工作的大基调是推动经济整体好转,以稳为主,在高质量发展中重塑信心。舆论普遍认为,随着疫情防控态势的转变和一系列政策措施的起效,明年中国宏观经济大概率将得到回升,中国2023年经济增速将在5%左右。尽管困难重重,外界还是普遍对中国经济未来给予乐观预期。


1. pillar of the economy 经济支柱

Vice Premier Liu He told a foreign business delegation last week that the property market was a “pillar” of the economy and new measures are being considered to improve the financial condition of the sector and boost confidence.

国务院副总理刘鹤上周对一个外国商业代表团表示,房地产是国民经济的支柱产业,政府正在考虑采取新的措施,改善房地产行业的财务状况,提振信心。

(英文摘自2022.12.19 Bloomberg 网站)

The readout also highlights the more pressing need to defuse risk in the property sector and support housing demand, even though the long-held principle of “houses are for living in, not for speculation” is preserved. That message is echoed by the rare reaffirmation of property as an “economic pillar” by a vice‑premier, Liu He, days prior to the conference.

数据显示,尽管“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”这一长期原则被保留,但化解房地产行业风险、支持住房需求这一问题更为迫切需要被解决。副总理刘鹤在会议前几天罕见地重申房地产行业是“经济支柱”,正应证了这一信息。

(英文摘自2022.12.22 Economic Intelligence 网站)

2. bounce back 反弹

While global growth will likely weaken significantly in 2023, China's economy is expected to bounce back and improve, a senior official said, according to Xinhua News.


据新华社报道,一位高级官员表示,尽管2023年全球经济增长可能会大幅放缓,中国经济有望反弹并得到改善。


(英文摘自2022.12.19 CGTN 网站)


In the last month, Beijing suddenly ceased many of the lockdown measures and Covid testing requirements that had weighed on economic growth over the last 18 months. Analysts warn of a bumpy road to full reopening, but they now expect China’s economy to bounce back sooner than previously forecast.


上个月,北京突然放宽了许多“封控”措施和新冠病毒核酸检测要求,这些措施在过去18个月间“限制”了经济增长。分析人士警告说,全面重新放开的道路崎岖不平,但他们认为中国经济将比此前预测的速度更快反弹。


(英文摘自2022.12.21 CNBC 网站)

1672361989766048770.jpg
图片来源:Bloomberg

3. trajectory 轨道;轨迹

China’s growth outlook is subject to significant risks, stemming from the uncertain trajectory of the pandemic, of how policies evolve in response to the COVID-19 situation, and the behavioral responses of households and businesses.


中国经济增长前景面临着重大的风险,这些风险来自于疫情发展轨迹的不确定性、对新冠疫情的应对政策以及家庭和企业的反应。


(英文摘自2022.12.20 The World Bank 网站)


While the world's growth will likely weaken significantly in 2023, the Chinese economy is expected to see an independent upward  trajectory with an overall recovery, a senior official said.


一位高级官员表示,虽然2023年世界经济增长速度可能会大幅放缓,但中国经济预计将整体复苏,出现独立的上行轨迹。


(英文摘自2022.12.19 China Daily 网站)


4. shore up 支撑;支持

Beijing’s plans to shore up the tech sector come amid broader moves to bolster the economy next year as China emerges from a prolonged period of Covid Zero.


中国正从长期的“新冠清零政策”中复苏,明年将针对提振科技行业的计划采取更广泛的措施,以促进经济。


(英文摘自2022.12.22 Bloomberg 网站)


China’s leaders pledged to shore up the pandemic-stricken economy next year by boosting consumption, supporting the property sector and helping private enterprise, according to an agenda-setting meeting that ended on Friday.


根据周五结束的会议议程,中国领导人承诺明年将通过促进消费、支持房地产行业和帮助私营企业来支撑受疫情影响的经济。


(英文摘自2022.12.20 Reuters 网站)

1672362012166010174.jpg

图片来源:Global Times

5. ample liquidity 充足的流动性

That could mean further monetary easing, like interest rate cuts, and a push to get banks to boost loans, especially to small businesses. Officials said liquidity will remain “reasonably ample,”and they’ll aim to expand credit at a similar pace to nominal GDP growth.


这可能意味着货币政策会进一步放松,例如银行将降息并推动发放贷款,尤其是对小企业的贷款。官员们表示,流动性将保持“合理充裕”,他们的目标是以与名义GDP相似的增长速度扩张信贷。


(英文摘自2022.12.19 Bloomberg 网站)


China will maintain reasonably ample liquidity in financial markets while better serving needs from the real economy next year, state media quoted a vice governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) as saying on Saturday.


周六,官方媒体援引中国人民银行副行长的话称,明年中国将在更好地服务实体经济需求的同时,保持金融市场流动性合理充裕。


(英文摘自2022.12.19 Reuters 网站)


6. endogenous dynamics 内生动力

To foster a new development paradigm, the endogenous dynamics and reliability of domestic circulation should be strengthened, while the quality of international circulation should be elevated.


围绕构建新发展模式,需要增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性,提升国际循环的质量和水平。


(英文摘自2022.12.21 China Daily 网站)


撰稿:徐亚晖

核稿:国佳 韩桦

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