《参考观点》(第35期)|中国促成沙特伊朗恢复外交关系

2023-04-13
导语
3月10日,中国、沙特阿拉伯、伊朗在北京发表三方联合声明,宣布沙特、伊朗达成协议,同意恢复中断近七年的外交关系。沙特伊朗复交不仅对中东的地缘政治有重大影响,为国际社会和平稳定做出重大贡献,也标志着中国在外交上取得的巨大成功。


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图片来源:Global Times


一、世界媒体对中国促成沙伊和解做出积极评价


1、中国在沙特伊朗复交中扮演重要角色



中国无疑在促成沙特伊朗恢复外交关系中发挥了建设性作用。对话也成为有力践行“全球安全倡议”的一次成功实践。作为一个善意、可靠的斡旋者,中方忠实履行了东道主职责。

The China-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement is a major diplomatic breakthrough after years of mutual animosity, suspected attacks and espionage between the two countries. Taking up a specific role that the U.S. could not have fulfilled, this was Beijing’s first foray into Middle East mediation, an area that for the past few decades was largely occupied by Washington.

(March 15, 2023. “The China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal has big repercussions for the Middle East — and the U.S.” CNBC)

On Friday, Iran and Saudi Arabia, long at odds with each other, announced that they would resume diplomatic relations in a deal brokered by China. Yet the most important and long-lasting impact of the deal could be China’s role in it. Making a rare diplomatic foray far from home, Beijing brought the two Middle Eastern adversaries to a deal.

(March 14, 2023. “China Plays Peacemaker.” The Atlantic)


Involving China, the Saudis believed, was the surest guarantee that a deal with Iran would last, since Tehran would be unlikely to risk jeopardizing its relations with Beijing by violating such a deal. Xi discussed the issue with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during his visit to Riyadh in December 2022 and then met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Beijing in February 2023. Intense discussions between Iran and Saudi Arabia followed, during which the two sides agreed to bury the hatchet and normalize relations. For both countries, Xi’s personal intervention was critical. Both have long-standing political and economic ties with Beijing, and the Chinese president was, therefore, able to act as a trusted broker between them.


(March 22, 2023. “A New Order in the Middle East?” Foreign Affairs)


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图片来源:The Atlantic

2、中国为维护世界和平做出重要贡献

沙特伊朗同意复交的消息一出,便获得了国际社会的积极反响。多国对沙特和伊朗同意恢复外交关系表示欢迎,高度肯定了中国在沙特伊朗复交中扮演的积极角色和对世界和平稳定做出的巨大贡献。中国向来是爱好和平的负责任大国,主张通过对话谈判、和平手段解决国际冲突。在沙特伊朗的复交中,中国为地区国家解决争端提供中国智慧、中国方案。中国的所作所为体现了负责任的大国担当,为维护世界和平做出了重要贡献。国际社会亦期望中国在未来的国际冲突调解中扮演更加积极的角色。

By contrast, China, is a nation of peace that has better solutions for the world’s iniquities and challenges, ones rooted in Chinese wisdom and formulated by Xi, that master philosopher. Those ideas are enshrined in the Global Security Initiative that Xi inaugurated last year, which stresses the paramount importance of state sovereignty and calls for noninterference in countries’ domestic affairs and an end to “bloc confrontation.” According to a recent Chinese-government statement, the initiative aims to “encourage joint international efforts to bring more stability and certainty to a volatile and changing era.”

(March 14, 2023. “China Plays Peacemaker.” The Atlantic)

“The US is increasingly taking sides in regional conflicts, becoming co-belligerent in regional conflicts which makes it very difficult for the US to play a peacemaking role,” Parsi said. “China did not take sides between Saudi and Iran, has worked very hard to not get dragged into their conflict and as a result, could play a peacemaking role.”

(March 11, 2023. “‘Changing global order’: China’s hand in the Iran-Saudi deal.” AL Jazeera)

China's effort to help the reestablishment of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been praised by the UN and the vast majority of the international community, and it was especially welcomed by Middle East and Islamic countries that will be directly affected by the development of the situation, with experts saying that the experience China gained from this case is helpful for its mediation in conflicts and tensions worldwide, including the ongoing Ukraine crisis.

Apart from the Middle East, many countries in the international community, including some Western countries, are holding high expectations on China to mediate some ongoing crises, especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is bringing huge damage to the region and the world, experts said.

As long as Ukraine can make decisions independently and pragmatically based on its own interests, or the US can engage with Russia for dialogue rather than adding fuel to the fire, Russia is open for negotiations, so the relevant countries do have a reason to hold confidence in China's mediation effort in the crisis, experts said.

But China will do it in China's way based on the spirit of the Global Security Initiative, and China will remain neutral and fair rather than simply helping one side pressure the other, they noted.

(March 14, 2023. “China’s experience in resuming Tehran-Riyadh ties helps mediation for other conflicts worldwide.” Global Times)

After years of hostility, the regional rivals agreed in March to restore ties in a landmark agreement brokered by China – a move that experts say demonstrated Beijing’s increasingly influential role in the region in contrast to the diminishing role of the United States.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Thursday that Beijing is ready to support both sides in fostering good relations, urging the international community to help the Middle Eastern countries resolve their differences.

“The colonial hegemonic tactics of stirring up contradictions, creating estrangement and division should be rejected by the people all over the world,” she said.

(April 6, 2023. Iran, Saudi Arabia take a step closer to repairing ties. AL Jazeera

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图片来源:BBC

二、沙伊和解推动中东乃至全球地缘格局加速剧变

1、“沙伊和解”让世界意识到中国在中东地区的重要影响力

沙伊北京和解让世界意识到中国在中东地区的重要影响力,加速中东地缘政治的重新调整,并在政治、经济、文化等领域带来新的契机。中国在沙特伊朗恢复外交关系进程中的建设性作用与中国不断上升的地区影响力息息相关。一方面,中国与伊朗、沙特均为全面战略伙伴关系,拥有双方的信任。另一方面,随着“一带一路”倡议、全球安全倡议等在中东落地,地区国家普遍欢迎中国在地区事务中扮演更重要的角色。中国不断上升的政治和经济影响力有助于促进各国解决争端和缓解紧张局势。

China is a significant buyer of Iranian oil, and in March 2021, it signed a 25-year economic cooperation agreement with Tehran. China is also Saudi Arabia’s primary trading partner. After the deal was signed, a senior Saudi official told Crisis Group that China is the only country in a position to both pressure Iran and offer assurances to Saudi Arabia. A Saudi expert close to the talks likewise explained to Crisis Group, “China is in the region to stay. It has leverage with Iran following the signing of the 25-year deal. … It should use it”.

But if the Iranian-Saudi deal proves a success and increases Chinese leverage in the Middle East, it will also hand it more responsibilities. As the deal’s guarantor, Beijing will be held responsible for making it stick.

(March 17, 2023. “How Beijing Helped Riyadh and Tehran Reach a Detente.” International Crisis Group)

Appearing to facilitate the negotiations adds to Chinese prestige. The not-so-subtle message that China is sending is that while the United States is the preponderant military power in the Gulf, China is a powerful and rising diplomatic presence. This adds to a perception of Chinese power and influence around the world, and it contributes to a narrative of a shrinking U.S. global presence.

(March 10, 2023. “Why Did China Help Saudi Arabia and Iran Resume Diplomatic Ties?” CSIS)

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图片来源:The New York Times

2、“沙伊和解”是北京的成果,同时也标志着华盛顿外交的失败

波斯湾地区最大的两个国家间的和解不但标志着美国外交的重大失败,表明美国在该地区的影响力和可信度已经下降,也注定将成为拜登政府外交遗产中的“污点”。美国外交的失败一方面归咎于拜登政府过分强调民主与专制间的意识形态之争——西方国家的民主价值观在海湾地区缺乏共鸣;另一方面沙特阿拉伯对美国反复无常的政策感到厌倦,重新回归基于国家利益的对外政策轨道。

The reconciliation between the two biggest regional powers in the Persian Gulf region is the US retrenchment, which denotes a colossal breakdown of American diplomacy. It will remain a black mark in President Biden’s foreign policy legacy. Biden must take the blame for it. Such a cataclysmic failure is largely to be traced to his fervour to impose his neoconservative dogmas as an adjunct of America’s military might and Biden’s own frequent insistence that the fate of humankind hinges on the outcome of a cosmic struggle between democracy and autocracy.

(March 13, 2023. Geopolitical sensation: Saudi Arabia and Iran re-establish ties in talks hosted by China. Modern Diplomacy

What the global West sees as a fight for democratic values lacks resonance among the Gulf autocracies, and the conflict doesn’t consume them in the same way as it does leaders in European capitals.

Saudi Arabia, and MBS in particular, have become particularly frustrated with America’s flip-flop diplomacy: dialing back relations over the Crown Prince’s role in the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi (which MBS denies); then calling on him to cut oil production swiftly followed by requests to increase it.

These inconsistencies have led the Saudis to hew policy to their national interests and less to America’s needs.

(March 15, 2023. China has shattered the assumption of US dominance in the Middle East. CNN

Leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have made concerted efforts to diversify their foreign relations and move away from being overly dependent on the U.S., as successive American administrations treat the Middle East as less of a priority.

Taking up a specific role that the U.S. could not have fulfilled, this was Beijing’s first foray into Middle East mediation, an area that for the past few decades was largely occupied by Washington.

“I think it demonstrates that U.S.’s influence and credibility in that region has diminished and that there is a new sort of international regional alignment taking place, which has empowered and given both Russia and China newfound influence and status,” Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former Middle East policy advisor for the State Department, told NBC News. He called the fact that China brokered the deal “stunning.”

(March 15, 2023. “The China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal has big repercussions for the Middle East — and the U.S.” CNBC)

The Iran-Saudi Arabia détente signals a sharp increase in China’s influence in the Gulf region, where the U.S. has long been the dominant power broker. This was the first time China had intervened so directly in the Gulf’s political rivalries. For Beijing, it is about deepening China’s engagement in the region and becoming a more significant player in Gulf security affairs, another sign of the United States’ waning influence.

(March 27, 2023. “China in Iran-Saudi Arabia Relations: Impact on Israel.” The Diplomat)

The US’ humiliating exclusion from the centre stage of West Asian politics constitutes a “Suez moment” for the superpower, comparable to the crisis experienced by the UK in 1956, which obliged the British to sense that their imperial project had reached a dead end and the old way of doing things—whipping weaker nations into line as ostensible obligations of global leadership —was no longer going to work and would only lead to disastrous reckoning.

The stunning part here is the sheer brain power and intellectual resources and ‘soft power’ that China has brought into play to outwit the US. The US has at least 30 military bases in West Asia — five in Saudi Arabia alone — but it has lost the mantle of leadership.

(March 13, 2023. Geopolitical sensation: Saudi Arabia and Iran re-establish ties in talks hosted by China. Modern Diplomacy


编辑:俞依奇 程泽笠
审核:张立荣 许馨匀


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